Friday 29 March 2013

My visit to Glastonbury: Part II - The reaction

I discussed in my previous post my visit to the councillors of Glastonbury to talk to them about unconventional gas extraction, and the potential impact it could have on the area. In that post I gave a summary of what I said in my talk. In this post, I'd like to talk about the reaction.

It should be noted that I didn't go there with the intention of changing anyone's mind. Given that the council had already voted to ban fracking, I hardly thought a 45 minute presentation by a gravitas-lacking 29 year old (even if he does have a good number of letters after his name) would be enough to change their minds (I was more worried about getting out of there without being tarred-and-feathered to be honest).

However, the councilman who had asked me to come give the talk sent me a very kind email afterwards, saying he saw the evening as a total success, at that some members 'had come to confessions and said the presentation had changed their minds'. I wasn't aware that councillors had 'confessions', but I'm very glad that I appear to have had some small effect at least.

Furthermore, there was a reporter from the local paper in attendance, who placed a story on my talk in the Somerset Gazette, which has granted me my first experience of being completely misrepresented by the media (I guess we all get to experience this eventually.

It ran under the headline: 'Expert warns fracking leaks are the result of cutting corners'. Which is true. What is completely missing is the context - the fact that leaks from fracking are not inevitable side effects of the process, but that they can be prevented by a stronger regulatory regime. Also, missing is the context that the majority of companies are not cutting corners, which is why the percentage rate of leakage instances remains very very low.

In my view (perhaps unfairly, I'd love to hear your comments), you could be mistaken for thinking that I am opposed to fracking, based on that article. For instance, the line:
I am here to tell you how the process works and the effects that science has shown that it has on the people nearby and the surrounding areas,
placed without context, suggests that I am saying that science has shown lots of impacts. In fact, in my talk I went on to point out, for example with the Texas and Pennsylvania air quality surveys, that scientific evidence for negative impacts of fracking on water and/or air quality have been remarkably hard to come by, bar a small number of documented surface spill and well integrity cases.  

The final and most important item left out in the story is that I summarised my talk by stating that, while it is not my decision to take, I believe that unconventional gas extraction can be done safely in the South West, and that it will have a beneficial impact on the area. It would have been nice if that could have been reported as well.


Wednesday 27 March 2013

My visit to Glastonbury

Last week I had the pleasure of visiting Glastonbury, a small town in Somerset best known for its tor and its music festival. Glastonbury Town Council has preemptively declared itself to be 'frack-free'. Much like Frome's similar decision last year, this is more a symbolic gesture, because (a) it's not clear that there is any unconventional gas to be had from around Glastonbury, and (b) if there were, it is unlikely to be developed for many years.

The decision was not a unanimous one. Some councillors felt that the decision had been rushed, having heard only of the negative sides from Frack Free Somerset. Jim Barron, one of the dissenting councilmen, pleaded in the local paper for a more evidence based discussion before any decisions be taken.

As a result, I was asked to come down to Glastonbury one evening after work to give a presentation to the council. You can download the presentation that I ended up giving from here. You might as well read it in full, but here's a potted summary.

I began by explaining what shale gas is, why it is different to conventional gas, and why hydraulic fracturing is necessary. I followed this by explaining the process, including a time-lapse video of a well being drilled and fracked, and an animation showing how microseismic events are used to image where the stimulated fracture is going. I gave a short overview of existing UK onshore oil/gas operations, including the fact that fracking has been done over 200 times in the UK since the 1970s.

I then outlined what I see as the potential issues relating to unconventional gas extraction: water usage, earthquakes, water contamination, air pollution, and surface impacts. The first, water usage, can be quickly shown to be a red herring: the water lost by SouthWest Water through leakage every day would be enough to frack more than 30 wells. I talked about the Blackpool earthquake, discussing how event magnitudes work (and that the event in Blackpool is so small that most of my real-earthquake-studying colleagues wouldn't get out of bed for something 10 times the size), and looking at evidence for fracking-induced earthquakes elsewhere (of which there are a handful in Canada, but none in the US).

Water contamination is perhaps the major issue for fracking. It is clear that there have been some cases of methane contamination through wells, and of chemical spills at the surface. I listed some of the key incidents taken from this report. However, it is important to point out that where methane leakage has occurred, it is inevitably due to shoddy practice from the drillers: poor or incomplete casing and/or missing cement. Equally, it should be fairly easy not to spill chemicals on pads at the surface, while open tailings ponds (often the most common source of surface contamination) are not allowed in the UK. It is most important to consider the context of these incidents: for example, the Groundwater Protection Council estimate that less than 0.1% of wells have seen a problem.   

With respect to air pollution, I showed a number of studies from both Pennsylvania and Texas, which do not show increases in benzene, ozone or volatile organic compounds (VOCs) before and after drilling. I then looked at a study of employee health statistics for the oil and gas industry in comparison to other sectors. If drill pads are unhealthy places to be, with dangerous chemicals being pumped into the air, then surely the employees should be getting the sickest, given that they might be on site 6 days a week for months on end. In fact, sickness rate in the gas industry is pretty consistent with national average rates, and a lot lower than many other industries.

To demonstrate the surface impacts of shale gas extraction, I showed some photos of what the rigs look like during drilling (on site for a month or two), and what the pads look like once the well is completed, and talked about pad spacing (minimum 2 - 6km as an approximation), as well as pointing out other impacts like new pipelines, and the truck journeys to and from the pads.

I then talked about the public debate around fracking in the US, pointing out that it has become highly polarised, with protest groups, but then anti-protest groups who protest the protest groups. I also showed the data from a Pittsburgh public opinion survey that showed that generally fracking does have more support than opposition (although perhaps the opposition is more vociferous).

Finally, as I like to do, I compared the risks from fracking to the risks from conventional gas extraction. To me at least, if you are opposed to fracking, you should be opposed to all hydrocarbon extraction, so I posed the question to Glastonbury's councilmen: take the scary boogey-word 'fracking' out of the question, and ask what would you do if there was a large conventional gas field discovered under Glastonbury. What would you do?

Thursday 14 March 2013

Coal bed methane in Falkirk

There's been a fair bit of activity down in the SW over UK Methane's plans for coal bed methane extraction around Keynsham. Coal bed methane, like shale gas, uses fracking to extract gas, only from deep coal seams rather than shale beds.

Coal bed methane has already been in operation in Scotland for several years (I wasn't aware of this, and am indebted to Frack-Off for pointing this out).

So, how has CBM extraction affected Falkirk? Has it become an environmental wasteland? Here's the local MP (Eric Joyce) on the issue, writing in the Guardian:
My constituency of Falkirk is home to one of the UK's most advanced coalbed methane extraction projects. As Lord Browne says, the extraction of coalbed methane is a low carbon bridge to future technologies, is unobtrusive and is environmentally safe. I have received a handful of local objections to the project, all from the same campaign group and all reminiscent of the disastrous anti-science, anti-GM lobby of a decade ago. On the other hand, I have received many messages of support from constituents who accept the potentially valuable contribution unconventional gas extraction has to make to the UK's energy mix.
It surprises me how much these onshore unconventional gas developments seem to have slipped under that radar, on both sides of the argument. Councillors and locals with worries about CBM developments in Somerset should be making a bee-line to find out more about how it has impacted Falkirk? Surely that might help improve the quality of the debate somewhat.

As an aside, it is interesting that Eric Joyce draws parallels with the anti-scientific approach of those who oppose unconventional gas with those who opposed GM food a decade ago. He's not the first to make this comparison (nor the second)...