Wednesday 24 October 2012

A shorter letter to the Somerset Standard

It would appear that I'm a rather long winded waffler! If you read my blog regularly then I'm sure you already knew this, but the Somerset Standard asked me to shorten my piece so that it could fit into their paper, so here it is in it's abridged form:


Dear Editor,


I am writing to express my concern at the actions of Frome Council in declaring a "frack-free" zone, which appears to be based on biased propaganda rather than any consideration of the facts that relate to the debate surrounding shale gas extraction and hydraulic fracturing.

Shale gas extraction should not be described as a form of "extreme energy", using "a lot of energy in order to get just a bit more energy back". In fact, fracking a well takes only a few hours. A recent life-cycle emissions analysis by the European Commission has indicated locally-produced shale gas has no worse a climate change impact than LNG imported the Middle East (with the additional emissions associated with transport), not to mention the economic and geo-political impacts of producing our own gas, rather than buying from foreign regimes with dubious human-rights records.

The biggest objection raised against fracking is the issue of groundwater contamination, usually spurred by the dramatic images of flaming taps available on Youtube, where water loaded with methane can be set on fire. However, these videos usually fail to mention that methane contamination is in fact a common and natural occurrence in many parts of the US, and was so long before shale gas extraction came into the picture.

In fact, the US Environmental Protection Agency has documented only two proven incidences where shale gas extraction has caused water contamination: at Dimock, Pennsylvania, and Pavillion, Wyoming. At Dimock, the faulty well was identified, remedied, and contamination levels have now returned below acceptable minima. At Pavillion, the cause of the contamination is still uncertain, as different US agencies have attributed different causes, so investigations are still ongoing. The US Groundwater Protection Council has examined water contamination incidence rates due to onshore oil and gas wells, finding an incident rate less than 0.01%.

The council's view is, apparently, that "the American experience points towards relatively small gains in energy at huge long and short term environmental cost". In fact, the experience in the USA has provided significant gains on both the local and national level.

On the local scale, once moribund rural areas are booming: the influx of workers has seen hotels fully booked for months in advance, restaurants and bars full every evening, and every other service industry experiencing a similar boost. On a national scale, gas prices have tumbled by as much of 75%, providing benefits not just for the average domestic heating bill, but also for the many industries that use natural gas as a feedstock. Meanwhile cheap gas prices have lead power companies to switch from coal fired to gas fired power stations, resulting in a reduction in CO2 emissions to their lowest levels in 20 years.

It is commonly implied that oil and gas companies are devious, unreliable, and bad neighbours to have. However, in this case, companies proposing hydraulic fracturing have been remarkably open: all of the pertinent data from tests conducted by Cuadrilla in Blackpool are available on the Department for Energy and Climate Change website, as is the fracking fluid composition (of which, 99% is H2O). In contrast, the opposition to shale gas has based its arguments on falsehoods, manipulated data and scary Youtube videos. There is a need for a rational, evidence-driven debate about shale gas extraction in the South-West. However, by polarising the debate in this manner, environmentalists are preventing this from happening.
 
Yours Sincerely, etc etc etc

I think maybe it looses something in going from 1000 to 500 words, but never mind....

Tuesday 23 October 2012

6 seismologists jailed after L'Aquila earthquake

Yesterday, 6 Italian seismologists and 1 public official were jailed for the actions in lead-up to the L'Aquila earthquake that killed 309 people in 2009.

This is a hugely alarming decision, and one is immediately put in mind of medieval witch-trials, where some old woman could always be blamed for the latest crop failure/flood/natural disaster and punished for it.

The legal implications could also be significant. What scientist would now ever want to make any public pronouncements about anything pertaining to public safety? If I were an Italian volcanologist, epidemiologist, or weather-forecaster, I'd be very worried about the legal precedent that has now been set. As everyone on twitter was quick to point out, Michael Fish must be very glad that he's not Italian.

Of course, in a case as important as this, it's worth going into detail about what actually happened. A week before the earthquake happened, a series of smaller quakes occurred across the area. The 'Committee for Major Risks' was convened to assess the seismic risk. The 6 seismologists themselves did not speak to the public, but the government official on the panel (who was not a seismologist) was interviewed by the press after the meeting, and he said there was little risk of a large earthquake, that the tremors were in fact releasing accumulated strain energy, reducing the probability of a large quake. Rather famously, he said that people should relax with a glass of the local multipulciano.

One week later, the quake struck, the old stone buildings of L'Aquila collapsed, and 309 people were killed by falling masonry.

There is obviously a huge amount of emotional anguish associated with the case: 309 people died and many many more lost their homes and possessions. In such a situation, it is human nature to want to blame someone and to see them punished: medieval witch trials happened for a reason after all. A a species we're not very good at accepting acts of god - somebody must be to blame. And it's very clear when you read the statements of those who lost loved ones in the quake that they are glad that these scientists have received such lengthy custodial sentences.

But lets examine these events from a seismological perspective. It is well established that seismic predictions are pretty much impossible. What the (non-seismologist) official told the public was in essence correct: often small seismic events do release strain energy. If you take the San Andreas fault as an example, there are creeping sections where small-scale seismic activity occurs regularly, and these sections rarely experience the larger quakes, and then there are the 'locked' section, where little seismicity is occurring, where it is most likely that the next 'big one' will occur. Sometimes, large earthquakes are preceded by a swarm of smaller ones.

So, what the official should have said is: the risk of an earthquake is no higher that it usually is (which is still appreciable, because you are living in central Italy, which is a seismically active area). But there is no evidence for an increased risk. This is probably the most scientifically accurate description of the situation. I guess that's where the miscommunication has happened, where no increased risk became 'no risk, have a glass of wine'.

But what where the alternatives for the committee? To suggest an evacuation? Based on the available evidence, this would have been an irresponsible decision to take. Evacuations can be extremely costly, both economically (as everyone leaves their jobs for weeks), as well as to human health as the risks to the old and frail of moving thousands of humans from their homes into temporary shelters for what could end up being weeks. And a key thing to bear in mind with evacuations, is at what point do you allow people back to their homes? With something like a volcano, it's obvious that once the volcano has either erupted or died back down again, then you can let people back.

But with an earthquake, there would be no evidence to say that people could have returned. Bear in mind that the quake happened a week after the committee met. Had they ordered the evacuation that day, do they really think people would still have been happily waiting it out in tents outside town 7 days later with no large event appearing to happen?

What else could they have done? Reminded everyone of what to do in the event of an earthquake (hit the deck, get away from buildings if you can, get under a table or doorway if you can't. Avoid anything glass. Watch out for falling objects/masonry. Sure, that would be helpful, although really this should be happening all the time in an area with high earthquake risk. But would this have helped the 309 people at L'Aquila? These people died because the buildings they were in collapsed. The majority of the buildings were old, stone structures with little or no re-inforcement: they were a disaster waiting to happen. If anyone is to be blamed for the deaths at L'Aquila, it is whoever failed to ensure that building standards were enacted/enforced. It would have been a very expensive operation to retro-fit all these medieval buildings, but this would have been the only way to save the lives of these 309 people.

Instead, blaming and imprisoning these seismologists sends entirely the wrong message. It solves no problem: public understanding of risk is not improved, while the science of risk assessment, or least the likelihood of scientists even attempting to communicate this to the public, may be severely damaged.









Monday 22 October 2012

A letter to Frome Council (and the Somerset Standard)


My thoughts as sent to the council of Frome, who have declared themselves a frack-free zone (and to the editors of the Somerset Standard as well.....)


Dear Editor/Council-members,

I am writing to express my concern at the actions of Frome Council in declaring a "frack-free" zone. My concern lies primarily in the manner that the decision has been made, rather than the decision itself, which, as the council acknowledges, is largely symbolic.

The basis for the council's decision, as set out in the agenda available on the council website, appears to be based on biased propaganda rather than any consideration of the facts that relate to the debate surrounding shale gas extraction and hydraulic fracturing (or "fracking").

Shale gas extraction is indeed an unconventional resource. However, it can in no way be described as a form of "extreme energy", using "a lot of energy in order to get just a bit more energy back". In fact, to frack a well requires a few hours of pumping at high pressure, creating a well that may produce natural gas for years.

With respect to the energy needed for fracking, a recent life-cycle emissions analysis by the European Commission has in fact shown that in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, locally-produced shale gas has no worse a climate change impact than LNG imported from Russia or the Middle East (with the additional emissions associated with transport), not to mention the economic and geo-political impacts of producing our own gas, rather than handing money to regimes with dubious human-rights records.

The biggest objection raised against shale gas is the issue of groundwater contamination, usually spurred by the dramatic images of flaming faucets easily available on Youtube, where water loaded with methane can be set on fire. However, these videos usually fail to mention that methane contamination is in fact a common and natural occurrence in many parts of the US, and was so long before shale gas extraction came into the picture.

In fact, the US Environmental Protection Agency has documented only two proven incidences where shale gas extraction has caused water contamination: at Dimock, Pennsylvania, and Pavillion, Wyoming. At Dimock, the faulty well was identified, remedied, and contamination levels have now returned below acceptable minima. At Pavillion, the cause of the contamination is still uncertain, as different US agencies have attributed different causes, so investigations are still ongoing.

To put this in context, something like 40,000 shale gas wells have been drilled in the US, meaning that the rate of well-related incidences is something like 0.005%. Similarly, the US Groundwater Protection Council has examined water contamination incidence rates due to onshore oil and gas wells (in this case all wells, rather than solely shale gas), finding an incident rate less than 0.01%. Of course, the far tighter oil and gas regulations that we already have in the UK (in comparison to the US) would likely lead to an even lower incident rate.

The council's view is, apparently, that "the American experience points towards relatively small gains in energy at huge long and short term environmental cost". In fact, the experience in the USA has provided significant gains on both the local and national level.

On the local scale, once moribund rural areas are booming: shale gas extraction has created jobs both for specialists and for the more general labour market, while the influx of workers has seen hotels fully booked for months in advance, restaurants and bars full every evening, and every other service industry experiencing a similar boost. On a national scale, gas prices have tumbled by as much of 75%, providing benefits not just for the average domestic heating bill, but also for the many industries that use natural gas as a feedstock, significantly reducing their costs and therefore increasing their competitiveness.

With respect to the environment, the cheap gas price has lead power companies to switch from coal fired to gas fired power stations, leading to a reduction in CO2 emissions to their lowest levels in 20 years. When considered in a global context, it is worth bearing in mind that China is currently considering shale gas extraction. Given that China emits more CO2 than any other nation, the possibility that they might replace many of their thousands of dirty coal fired power plants with cleaner natural gas ones, represents the easiest and fastest way that global anthropogenic CO2 emissions could be reduced.

It is commonly implied that oil and gas companies are devious, unreliable, and bad neighbours to have (and given past events, this isn't an unreasonable view to hold). However, in this case, companies proposing hydraulic fracturing have in fact been remarkably open and transparent: All of the pertinent data from fracking tests conducted by Cuadrilla in Blackpool are available on the DECC (Department for Energy and Climate Change) website, as is the composition of the fracking fluids used (of which, 99% is H2O). In contrast, the opposition to shale gas has based its arguments on falsehoods, manipulated data and scary Youtube videos. There is a need for a rational, evidence-driven debate about shale gas extraction in the South-West. However, by polarising the debate in this manner, environmentalists are preventing this from happening.

As the council acknowledges, there may well be no shale gas under Frome. Even if there were, it's likely to be years before any operator considers any plans to extract it. As such, the decision by the council is largely a symbolic one. Does the council not have better uses for its time, and its rate-payer's money, than this misguided publicity stunt based on a highly biased representation of the facts surrounding shale gas extraction?

Yours Sincerely etc etc etc,

Saturday 20 October 2012

Frack free Frome

In the news recently - the town of Frome in Somerset has been declared a 'frack-free zone'. This is a largely symbolic gesture, given that it'll probably be years before we even know if there is any shale gas under or near Frome. But I found the minutes from the council meeting where this decision was taken made for worrying reading. You can read them here (pages 6 and 7 of the pdf):
Why is fracking a problem?
In the vicinity to where fracking takes place the gravest concern is water contamination. Many of the chemicals used in the fracking process have known negative health effects, including cancer, and can contaminate groundwater supplies, eventually polluting the water table and leaching into waterways. The industry itself estimates that 30-40% of the toxic water created in the fracking process is never recovered. The contamination of irrigation water could also affect food supplies. The fracking fluid can leach chemicals like arsenic out of the rocks making it even more toxic and so any recovered fluid (processed water) becomes a big disposal problem. Fracking in the United States has already resulted in numerous spills of these fluids, causing injury to human health and wildlife. Additionally, the fracking fluid can leach radioactive elements out of the rocks causing radioactive contamination.

Like other forms of ‘extreme energy’ (e.g. Tar Sands extraction), fracking is very carbon intensive. It uses a lot of energy (and therefore emits a lot of carbon dioxide) in order to get just a bit more energy back. Fracking has the additional problem that the natural gas (methane) that is being extracted is a stronger greenhouse gas than the carbon dioxide emitted by burning it and the method results in significant amounts of methane escaping directly into the atmosphere.

Fracking creates a large industrialised footprint on the landscape, and causes significant increases in traffic.  It can also compromise the geological structure of an area, which is of serious concern in the Mendips, where the subterranean systems are still mysterious even to experienced cavers, and where a build-up of methane could have potentially explosive results. Local councillors in Bath, including the leader of B&NES Paul Crossley, have further concerns about the potential contamination of the hot springs, the source of which lies somewhere in the Mendips, and thus on revenues from tourism.

There are, therefore considerable concerns around fracking pertinent both to our region and the greater environment.  The American experience points towards relatively small gains in energy at huge long and short term environmental cost.
If this is the sole information on which the council has made its decision then this is very worrying. No mention of any numbers or science here - numbers which would show that for several tens of thousands of wells, there have been two documented, scientifically verified cases of contamination - one at Dimock where a faulty wellbore leaked methane (no fracking fluids, no radiation), and one incident at Pavilion, which is currently under dispute as it appears that the EPA testing may have been faulty.

The 'extreme energy' paragraph is simply complete nonsense! It's a term that is being used to describe the move towards more unconventional hydrocarbon sources. It may have some validity for tar sands, which are pretty intensive to produce, but to describe shale gas in this way is complete bullsh!t. To frack a well, you pump water down a hole at high pressure for a few hours. This well will then produce gas for years. So it would be better described as 'you put a little bit of energy in, and get absolutely shed-loads back'. This is why shale gas is pushing US gas prices so low. As for the methane leakage issue, this has been firmly put to bed, including by an EU Scientific Report. Climate-wise, producing European shale gas would be better than importing gas from Russia or the middle east (not to mention the geo-political and economic impacts).

What about 'compromising the geological structure of an area'? As a geologist, I'm not even sure what that means, so it's hardly worth refuting. As for the caves - the maximum cave depths are ~200m: any likely shale gas deposits will be 2 - 3km below the surface. As far as the geologist working 2km down is concerned, these caves might as well be at the surface.

Does fracking create a significant industrialised footprint? I guess that depends on your definition of 'significant'. Yes, there will be a well pad every few miles. During drilling (usually takes about 3 months) the pad will be an acre or so, with a drilling rig about 4 storeys high. After that, the pad can be grassed over, and the well-head is topped by a 'Christmas tree', which is a couple of meters high. Yes, there will be a significant increase in truck traffic. But an increase in industrial footprint has benefits as well, something completely overlooked by Frome council. When industry grows, this creates jobs and it creates money. Even if some of the jobs that are created are specialist positions for trained geoscientists brought in from 'out-of-town', there are plenty of jobs for all walks of life - making the concrete for the drill pads, and construction of them, driving and servicing the trucks, for example. Plus all these people stay in hotels, eat in restaurants, drink in pubs, enjoy leisure activities in their spare time, and if they're there for the long haul, buy houses in the area. I can only assume that the economic situation in Frome is already pretty rosy if the council can afford to turn their noses up at this. If so, good for them, but I doubt that this is the situation across much of the rest of the country.

The American experience does not point towards small gains - the American experience points towards significant gains at small environmental cost: energy prices cut by 75%, economic booms in the shale gas areas, reviving once moribund towns and countrysides, while CO2 emission levels plummet to the lowest levels in years.

It's pretty obvious that this is a one-sided agenda. What's worrying is that these are official council documents. I'd have assumed that there would be some sort of requirement to consider these things from an impartial stand-point, considering the evidence wherever available. Clearly I'd be wrong....

Wednesday 3 October 2012

Fraud in Science

Shocking headline alert! Tenfold increase in scientific research papers retracted for fraud! A recent report has shown that the percentage of scientific papers that have been retracted due to fraud has increased ten-fold since 1976. Sounds shocking, right!?

Of course, dig a little deeper, and you'll find that the retraction rate was 0.00097% in 1976, and 0.0096% in 2007. So that's a rate of 1 paper per 10,000 that might be fraudulent. Which is pretty good going in my opinion really. I have 800 papers in my 'Papers2' library, so I'll have to read another 9,000 or so to have an odds on chance of reading a fraudulent one.

Shall we compare these statistics to the number of fraudulent builders or mechanics? How do people reckon odds of 1 in 10,000 stack up? How about our elected leaders? I don't know the exact numbers, but I'd guess at least 30 MPs were caught up in the parliamentary expenses scandal. We have about 600 MPs, so that's a rate of 5% (or 1 in 20). So academics are 500 times less fraudulent than our elected leaders. And, what's more, unlike the majority of our leaders, most of us can understand probabilities, which is always helpful when developing evidence-based policies.

So, underneath the awful-sounding headline, I'd argue that the numbers are actually pretty reassuring.

However, these numbers of course only consider the papers where fraud has been discovered and the papers retracted. I have no idea how many fraudulent papers go undetected. I'd imagine it could be pretty easy to massage numbers in a paper to give a more favourable result, and it'd be pretty hard to detect. There's often no real oversight in much of academia. I don't have anyone double checking my figures when I do my research. Even when I write papers with co-authors, they generally assume that my numbers are right and move forward from there. Similarly, when I've been given results from colleagues, I've never doubted their veracity.

Interestingly, there are various statistical methods that can pick up whether data are likely to have been made up. I particularly like this example. However, they are not widely applied - most scientists I know barely have time to fully read every paper they are supposed to, let alone perform statistical re-analysis on all of them.

The pressures to commit scientific fraud are obvious to anyone in academia. Your next job or promotion depends on a continuing output of top-quality papers in high impact journals. Lets say you spend a couple of years developing a new theory or method. If, at the end of it all, it doesn't really work and the results are inconclusive, all that work could end up as one paper in a low-quality journal that never gets read, leading to a huge pause on that career ladder. However, if you could massage a few numbers to get a statistically significant result, the amazing new paper gets published in Nature and you get to jump onto the next rung of the career ladder.

Perhaps the best defence against fraud is the attitude of the academic community. Unlike our MPs, where the attitude seemed to be 'everyone else is doing it, so I might as well', the response of the academic community to fraud is still one of disgust - anyone caught is disgraced and will probably never get to work in academia again.

Most people in academia are there because they want to find out more about the way the world works. Fraudulent data clouds that understanding. So most wouldn't dream of 'cooking the books'. For those that are tempted, I can only hope that the knowledge of the ruin they'd suffer if found out would be enough to deter them. Certainly, the headline numbers (the 1 in 10,000) appear reassuring. But as academics, I think we must be eternally vigilant, because it could become a huge problem if we don't maintain that pressure to always do the right thing for the sake of the community.