This week sees the release of DECC's 14th onshore licensing round. Potential operators can bid for licences that give them the exclusive right to explore for oil and gas, and indeed shale gas, within their licence block.
Note that having a licence doesn't automatically grant a right to drill or to do hydraulic fracturing. Operators must still get planning permission, and the relevant permits from the EA, DECC, HSE etc before they are allowed to do anything.
Below is a map showing the current state of play onshore in the UK. The map shows existing wells, fields and licence blocks, and the new blocks made available for licensing are shown in purple.
I have also created a google earth .kml file so you can look at this data in more detail. You can download it here.
Showing posts with label DECC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DECC. Show all posts
Tuesday, 29 July 2014
Thursday, 29 May 2014
New paper: Estimates of error in micro-earthquake magnitude estimation
With excellent timing, on the same day as the new BGS report into the shale oil potential of the Weald Basin, a new paper, written by two co-workers at Bristol Uni and myself, has been released in Geophysical Prospecting. In it, we examine the uncertainties in estimates of event magnitude made on small earthquakes.
This paper is significant for shale gas extraction in the wake of DECC's traffic light system (TLS) proposal for fracking operations. Under the TLS, operational decisions during the fracking process must be taken on events as small as magnitude 0.0 (the amber level), with complete cessation of activities for events larger than magnitude 0.5.
As most people are aware, a magnitude 0 event is very small, at the limit of what can be detected using conventional seismographs (see our efforts at Balcombe, for example). Expensive downhole microseismic monitoring systems are required to robustly detect smaller magnitudes.
The TLS pre-supposes that earthquake magnitudes at this low level can be accurately determined. The purpose of the TLS was to provide a simple-to-understand system to re-assure the public. Uncertainties in event magnitude estimation could undermine this, generating more controversy, not less.
We show in our paper that event magnitude estimations at these low levels can be very uncertain: you can get different answers depending on what methods you use and assumptions you make. It doesn't take too much imagination to think of a scenario where one group reporting on a fracking operation concludes that an induced earthquake was just below the TLS threshold, but another group using a different method finds that the earthquake did exceed it. The current debate over shale gas extraction is febrile enough as it is, can you imagine the recrimination and the confusion that such an eventuality would generate?
As most people are aware, a magnitude 0 event is very small, at the limit of what can be detected using conventional seismographs (see our efforts at Balcombe, for example). Expensive downhole microseismic monitoring systems are required to robustly detect smaller magnitudes.
The TLS pre-supposes that earthquake magnitudes at this low level can be accurately determined. The purpose of the TLS was to provide a simple-to-understand system to re-assure the public. Uncertainties in event magnitude estimation could undermine this, generating more controversy, not less.
We show in our paper that event magnitude estimations at these low levels can be very uncertain: you can get different answers depending on what methods you use and assumptions you make. It doesn't take too much imagination to think of a scenario where one group reporting on a fracking operation concludes that an induced earthquake was just below the TLS threshold, but another group using a different method finds that the earthquake did exceed it. The current debate over shale gas extraction is febrile enough as it is, can you imagine the recrimination and the confusion that such an eventuality would generate?
Thursday, 22 May 2014
BGS report on Weald Basin expected today
Update 23.5.2014: The report has now been released and is available here. The headline number is a resource of 4.4 billion barrels of oil in place.
The big news today is that the BGS report into the hydrocarbon potential of shale rocks in the Weald Basin will be released.
The Weald Basin stretches across the south of England, through the home counties from Dorset to Kent. It already hosts one very large oilfield at Wytch Farm (the EU's largest onshore oil field) and a number of smaller onshore oil and gas fields. The general public is largely unaware of these fields - I can speak from experience because I grew up almost directly above one of them - Humbly Grove in north Hampshire. I had little idea it was there until I went off to university to study geology.
In case you are wondering, here's a map of existing fields and licences, and below is a map of existing oil and gas wells drilled in the region
Thursday, 2 January 2014
FOI information from DECC - Well integrity in the UK
A recent FOI response from DECC regarding historic drilling in the UK makes for interesting reading. I've often mentioned the thousands of existing wells in the UK, both onshore and offshore, which have been drilled, operated and abandoned without incident, and the implications these have for future shale gas drilling in the UK. I've taken the liberty of doing a wholesale copy-and-paste, because this is fairly fundamental stuff:
(Questions in italics, DECC responses in bold)
The first question discusses offshore wells:
In relation to offshore gas/oil wells which fall under UK Government jurisdiction:
a. How many wells are currently in operation (wells not rigs)?
b. How many abandoned wells are there?
c. How many operating wells with cementation integrity issues have been reported within the last 5 years?
d. How many abandoned wells with cementation integrity issues have been reported within the last 5 years?
e. How many leaks from operating wells have been reported within the last 5 years?
f. How many leaks from abandoned wells have been reported within the last 5 years?
g. Does the UK Government keep records of abandoned wells with leaks / cementation integrity issues?
The second question discusses onshore wells
In relation to onshore gas/oil wells in the UK:
a. How many wells are currently in operation?
b. How many abandoned wells are there?
c. How many operating wells with cementation integrity issues have been reported within the last 5 years?
d. Where are these wells?
e. How many abandoned wells with cementation integrity issues have been reported within the last 5 years?
f. Where are these wells?
g. How many leaks from operating wells have been reported within the last 5 years?
h. How many leaks from abandoned wells have been reported within the last 5 years?
i. Does the UK Government keep records of abandoned wells with leaks / cementation integrity issues?
The final questions relate to hydraulic fracturing:
3. During gas / oil exploration for conventional targets, are wells hydraulically fractured?
4. During gas / oil exploration for unconventional targets (e.g. shale, coal bed methane), are wells hydraulically fractured using exactly the same technique for conventional targets?
5. During gas / oil exploration for unconventional targets (e.g. shale, coal bed methane), does high pressure, high volume slick water hydraulic fracturing (often referred to as fracking) take place?
6. If yes, please provide evidence to state at what point of the process this occurs (e.g. initial drilling, pressure testing, sampling etc).
(Questions in italics, DECC responses in bold)
The first question discusses offshore wells:
In relation to offshore gas/oil wells which fall under UK Government jurisdiction:
a. How many wells are currently in operation (wells not rigs)?
- There are about 25 offshore wells currently drilling
- Some 3360 offshore wells have been completed for production (ie are either producing oil and /or gas or are shut-in)
b. How many abandoned wells are there?
- Approximately 6500
c. How many operating wells with cementation integrity issues have been reported within the last 5 years?
- DECC does not hold this data
d. How many abandoned wells with cementation integrity issues have been reported within the last 5 years?
- DECC does not hold this data
e. How many leaks from operating wells have been reported within the last 5 years?
- Any release of oil and/or chemicals from offshore installations, including wells and pipelines, must be reported to DECC Offshore Oil and Gas Environment and Decommissioning (OGED) using a Petroleum Operations Notice No.1 (PON1). Details of PON1s received by the Department are published on our website at the following link https://www.gov.uk/oil-and-gas-environmental-data#pon-1-data. As far as DECC OGED is aware, no leaks have been reported for operating wells during the last five years, but a leak was reported from a suspended well in the Elgin field that attracted media attention (further details can be found at https://www.gov.uk/government/news/elgin-gas-release-government-interest-group) and a recent review of all suspended wells on the UKCS confirmed that there were minor gas leaks from four shut-in production wells.
f. How many leaks from abandoned wells have been reported within the last 5 years?
- As far as DECC OGED is aware, there have been no reports of leaks from abandoned wells in the last 5 years.
g. Does the UK Government keep records of abandoned wells with leaks / cementation integrity issues?
- Information in relation to leaks from abandoned wells is held by DECC.
The second question discusses onshore wells
In relation to onshore gas/oil wells in the UK:
a. How many wells are currently in operation?
- DECC requires monthly production reporting on a field basis, not a well basis. Reporting individual well operations is not required on licences issued before 1965, but we estimate there are currently about 300 onshore wells in production.
b. How many abandoned wells are there?
- Records for wells drilled before the 1960’s are not reliable so we can only estimate that there are about 1500 abandoned wells.
c. How many operating wells with cementation integrity issues have been reported within the last 5 years?
- None
d. Where are these wells?
- Not Applicable
e. How many abandoned wells with cementation integrity issues have been reported within the last 5 years?
- One
f. Where are these wells?
- This was a well in Stafforshire and the integrity issues have subsequently been dealt with.
g. How many leaks from operating wells have been reported within the last 5 years?
- None
h. How many leaks from abandoned wells have been reported within the last 5 years?
- None
i. Does the UK Government keep records of abandoned wells with leaks / cementation integrity issues?
- DECC does not keep such records – but regularly liaises with the Health & Safety Executive in relation to such issues.
The final questions relate to hydraulic fracturing:
3. During gas / oil exploration for conventional targets, are wells hydraulically fractured?
- Yes, some are.
4. During gas / oil exploration for unconventional targets (e.g. shale, coal bed methane), are wells hydraulically fractured using exactly the same technique for conventional targets?
- The volume of injected fluid is significantly bigger for shale gas, but similar and small volume for conventional and coalbed methane.
5. During gas / oil exploration for unconventional targets (e.g. shale, coal bed methane), does high pressure, high volume slick water hydraulic fracturing (often referred to as fracking) take place?
- Yes, for shales.
6. If yes, please provide evidence to state at what point of the process this occurs (e.g. initial drilling, pressure testing, sampling etc).
- After drilling, as part of an extended well test, see PREESE HALL information on our website, the only shale well that has been fracked so far. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/15745/5075-preese-hall- shale-gas-fracturing-review.pdf
Monday, 18 November 2013
Seismometer Deployments at Balcombe: Final Report
Cuadrilla's drilling at Balcombe attracted a lot of headlines. In a previous post I described (mainly by way of lots of holiday snaps) the deployment of seismometers by Bristol colleagues and I.
We have now completed our data analysis, and our results are available for you to read!
Hydraulic stimulation was not planned for this phase of Cuadrilla's operations. Therefore, we did not expect to see any induced seismic events. Nevertheless, we saw this as a good opportunity to attempt several objectives:
The first objective was simply about public perception. The average member of the public does not know much about earthquakes or about seismometers. They don't really understand magnitude scales, and they are not aware of the detection capabilities of modern seismometers. We hoped that the high levels of publicity surrounding Balcombe would give us a chance to help educate the public in these regards.
However, we had two main technical objectives as well. These relate to DECC's proposed traffic light scheme, whereby operators are required to stop if they trigger events above magnitude 0.0. Traffic light schemes are common for such operations - the Swiss in particular seem to like them. However, the minimum threshold here is far lower than anything used by the Swiss. Our aim is not to say whether this is appropriate or not, but its operation does pose some additional challenges, which our work seeks to address.
The first issue stems from the Gutenberg-Richter law, which states that the number of earthquakes (N) that occur which are larger than a given magnitude (M) is given by
log(N) = a - bM.
where a and b are measurable constants. The BGS gives values for a and b in the UK of 3.82 and 1.03, respectively. Using a magnitude of 0.0 (the lowest cutoff for the traffic lights), this relationship tells us that over 5,000 such events occur every year. The existing BGS seismic network is not capable of detecting these low magnitude events.
In order for the traffic light scheme to work effectively, we need to be able to distinguish between the 5,000 naturally occurring magnitude 0.0 and greater quakes that occur each year, and those induced by hydraulic stimulation. This requires us to have data about the naturally occurring events, which we do not currently have. Therefore, one purpose of our array was to begin to establish baseline measurements around a potential drilling site so that we can characterise any pre-existing, natural seismicity. This is but a small start, with only 1 month of background data. In an ideal scenario we'd want to have at least a year of baseline data.
The second purpose of our array was to measure typical levels of seismic noise and detectability thresholds for small, temporary arrays such as ours. The traffic light threshold of magnitude 0.0 is often at the threshold of detectability for surface seismometers. The detectability is controlled in part by the levels of noise on the seismometers. Although you might think the British countryside is a quiet place, there are many potential sources of noise, such as trains, roads, farm machinery, rivers. We wanted to see whether a small, relatively cheap array like ours would be helpful in administering the traffic light scheme, or whether more expensive microseismic monitoring methods are likely to be needed.
So, what did we find?
Well, the most obvious thing we saw was the train, made famous by local concerns about seismic impacts on the viaduct. We saw the train on all 4 seismic stations that we deployed. Here is an example:
You can see that the train is coming from the north. It is seen on station BA02 first, which is the northernmost, and on BA04 last, which is the southernmost. BA04 is only 150m from the rail line, so you can see the biggest signal on this station.
We wanted to compare the vibration from the train with typical earthquake magnitudes. To do this we used the UK magnitude scale, which is defined as
Ml = log(A) + 0.95log(R) + 0.00183R - 1.76,
where A is the amplitude of the signal at the station, and R is the distance between earthquake and seismometer. We modelled earthquakes occurring directly below the drilling site, and found that a quake with magnitude of 1.5 (the same as the 2nd Preese Hall quake) produced a similar amount of vibration to the train going past at 150m.
We used an automated trigger algorithm to search our data for potential local seismic events. Sadly, we didn't see anything that looked like a local earthquake, either before or during drilling.
The seismometers that we used are actually designed to detect earthquakes from around the globe. We did spot a number of such events (called "teleseismic arrivals"). Here's an example from a magnitude 7.7 event in Pakistan:
This map shows all 25 such events that we spotted:
One of our stations was only 300m from the drilling site. We did notice that things got slightly noisier on this station when drilling started. This figure compares the background noise before and during drilling. A simulated M0.5 event is shown - this shows up above the noise for both cases.
We didn't see any events during our monitoring period. However, we wanted to work out what we could have seen, had something happened. We simulated earthquakes occurring below the drill site, with a variety of magnitudes, and ran the simulated data through our automated detection algorithm, to see what was the smallest that could be reliably identified, given our recorded noise levels
We found that magnitude -0.2 was the smallest we could see. This simulated event is shown below:
As you can see, it just peaks up above the noise. This is the smallest event we can expect to see. This is just below what is required for the traffic light scheme, so a small array like this could work. However, I'd want to see a larger number of stations to really push the detection limits below the magnitude 0.0 cutoff.
Discussion - Accurate event magnitudes?
We finish with a number of recommendations for the implementation of the traffic light scheme (TLS). A fact unbeknownst to most non-seismologists is that there are in fact a number of different magnitude scales, depending on how magnitude is measured. They are all designed to be close to each other, however they are not always exactly the same.
The most common magnitude scale is known as "local magnitude", or ML. This is basically the good ol'fashioned Richter scale, and is fairly simple to compute. You simply measure the maximum amplitude of the seismic trace, you take the distance from source to receiver, and you put it into a local magnitude equation as I outlined above.
An alternative magnitude scale is the "Moment magnitude", or Mw. This directly relates to the moment (read 'force' or 'energy' in layman's terms) released by the earthquake, and in turn to both the size of the fault and the amount that the fault slipped. Mw is slightly harder to compute - you have to look at the frequency content of the earthquake signals - but probably a better representation of the physical process occurring in an earthquake (as opposed to an empirical approximation, as provided by ML).
Small, local arrays such as ours will typically report ML. However, the dense coverage provided by microseismic arrays (as now installed at Preese Hall) often report Mw. It needs to be made absolutely clear how these different types of measurements will be factored into the TLS, because they may not be exactly the same - indeed at small magnitudes they can be different by half a magnitude unit or more. So, for example, what happens if a quake is measured with ML = -0.1 but Mw = +0.1?
Similarly, all measurements of magnitude are subject to an error. This is rarely reported for the large earthquakes you see on TV - the relative signal to noise ratios for a large event are so large that you can be sure that it is magnitude 6.5 (or whatever) ± a very small amount. However, as you enter the world of micro-seismic events, the signal to noise ratio deteriorates (as you can see in image #6 above). As this happens, the error in the calculation gets larger. Again, the incorporation of errors into the TLS needs to be clarified - what happens if an event has magnitude -0.1 ± 0.2?
These issues do not invalidate the traffic light scheme. However, given that operational decisions, and therefore potentially millions of pounds, hang on the accurate characterisation of event magnitudes, it would be helpful to iron out any potential inconsistencies now, rather than in the wake of another induced event.
In closing, I would like to thank the co-authors of this work, who don't yet have blogs of their own.
We have now completed our data analysis, and our results are available for you to read!
Hydraulic stimulation was not planned for this phase of Cuadrilla's operations. Therefore, we did not expect to see any induced seismic events. Nevertheless, we saw this as a good opportunity to attempt several objectives:
The first objective was simply about public perception. The average member of the public does not know much about earthquakes or about seismometers. They don't really understand magnitude scales, and they are not aware of the detection capabilities of modern seismometers. We hoped that the high levels of publicity surrounding Balcombe would give us a chance to help educate the public in these regards.
However, we had two main technical objectives as well. These relate to DECC's proposed traffic light scheme, whereby operators are required to stop if they trigger events above magnitude 0.0. Traffic light schemes are common for such operations - the Swiss in particular seem to like them. However, the minimum threshold here is far lower than anything used by the Swiss. Our aim is not to say whether this is appropriate or not, but its operation does pose some additional challenges, which our work seeks to address.
The first issue stems from the Gutenberg-Richter law, which states that the number of earthquakes (N) that occur which are larger than a given magnitude (M) is given by
log(N) = a - bM.
where a and b are measurable constants. The BGS gives values for a and b in the UK of 3.82 and 1.03, respectively. Using a magnitude of 0.0 (the lowest cutoff for the traffic lights), this relationship tells us that over 5,000 such events occur every year. The existing BGS seismic network is not capable of detecting these low magnitude events.
In order for the traffic light scheme to work effectively, we need to be able to distinguish between the 5,000 naturally occurring magnitude 0.0 and greater quakes that occur each year, and those induced by hydraulic stimulation. This requires us to have data about the naturally occurring events, which we do not currently have. Therefore, one purpose of our array was to begin to establish baseline measurements around a potential drilling site so that we can characterise any pre-existing, natural seismicity. This is but a small start, with only 1 month of background data. In an ideal scenario we'd want to have at least a year of baseline data.
The second purpose of our array was to measure typical levels of seismic noise and detectability thresholds for small, temporary arrays such as ours. The traffic light threshold of magnitude 0.0 is often at the threshold of detectability for surface seismometers. The detectability is controlled in part by the levels of noise on the seismometers. Although you might think the British countryside is a quiet place, there are many potential sources of noise, such as trains, roads, farm machinery, rivers. We wanted to see whether a small, relatively cheap array like ours would be helpful in administering the traffic light scheme, or whether more expensive microseismic monitoring methods are likely to be needed.
So, what did we find?
Well, the most obvious thing we saw was the train, made famous by local concerns about seismic impacts on the viaduct. We saw the train on all 4 seismic stations that we deployed. Here is an example:
You can see that the train is coming from the north. It is seen on station BA02 first, which is the northernmost, and on BA04 last, which is the southernmost. BA04 is only 150m from the rail line, so you can see the biggest signal on this station.
We wanted to compare the vibration from the train with typical earthquake magnitudes. To do this we used the UK magnitude scale, which is defined as
Ml = log(A) + 0.95log(R) + 0.00183R - 1.76,
where A is the amplitude of the signal at the station, and R is the distance between earthquake and seismometer. We modelled earthquakes occurring directly below the drilling site, and found that a quake with magnitude of 1.5 (the same as the 2nd Preese Hall quake) produced a similar amount of vibration to the train going past at 150m.
We used an automated trigger algorithm to search our data for potential local seismic events. Sadly, we didn't see anything that looked like a local earthquake, either before or during drilling.
The seismometers that we used are actually designed to detect earthquakes from around the globe. We did spot a number of such events (called "teleseismic arrivals"). Here's an example from a magnitude 7.7 event in Pakistan:
This map shows all 25 such events that we spotted:
One of our stations was only 300m from the drilling site. We did notice that things got slightly noisier on this station when drilling started. This figure compares the background noise before and during drilling. A simulated M0.5 event is shown - this shows up above the noise for both cases.
We didn't see any events during our monitoring period. However, we wanted to work out what we could have seen, had something happened. We simulated earthquakes occurring below the drill site, with a variety of magnitudes, and ran the simulated data through our automated detection algorithm, to see what was the smallest that could be reliably identified, given our recorded noise levels
We found that magnitude -0.2 was the smallest we could see. This simulated event is shown below:
As you can see, it just peaks up above the noise. This is the smallest event we can expect to see. This is just below what is required for the traffic light scheme, so a small array like this could work. However, I'd want to see a larger number of stations to really push the detection limits below the magnitude 0.0 cutoff.
Discussion - Accurate event magnitudes?
We finish with a number of recommendations for the implementation of the traffic light scheme (TLS). A fact unbeknownst to most non-seismologists is that there are in fact a number of different magnitude scales, depending on how magnitude is measured. They are all designed to be close to each other, however they are not always exactly the same.
The most common magnitude scale is known as "local magnitude", or ML. This is basically the good ol'fashioned Richter scale, and is fairly simple to compute. You simply measure the maximum amplitude of the seismic trace, you take the distance from source to receiver, and you put it into a local magnitude equation as I outlined above.
An alternative magnitude scale is the "Moment magnitude", or Mw. This directly relates to the moment (read 'force' or 'energy' in layman's terms) released by the earthquake, and in turn to both the size of the fault and the amount that the fault slipped. Mw is slightly harder to compute - you have to look at the frequency content of the earthquake signals - but probably a better representation of the physical process occurring in an earthquake (as opposed to an empirical approximation, as provided by ML).
Small, local arrays such as ours will typically report ML. However, the dense coverage provided by microseismic arrays (as now installed at Preese Hall) often report Mw. It needs to be made absolutely clear how these different types of measurements will be factored into the TLS, because they may not be exactly the same - indeed at small magnitudes they can be different by half a magnitude unit or more. So, for example, what happens if a quake is measured with ML = -0.1 but Mw = +0.1?
Similarly, all measurements of magnitude are subject to an error. This is rarely reported for the large earthquakes you see on TV - the relative signal to noise ratios for a large event are so large that you can be sure that it is magnitude 6.5 (or whatever) ± a very small amount. However, as you enter the world of micro-seismic events, the signal to noise ratio deteriorates (as you can see in image #6 above). As this happens, the error in the calculation gets larger. Again, the incorporation of errors into the TLS needs to be clarified - what happens if an event has magnitude -0.1 ± 0.2?
These issues do not invalidate the traffic light scheme. However, given that operational decisions, and therefore potentially millions of pounds, hang on the accurate characterisation of event magnitudes, it would be helpful to iron out any potential inconsistencies now, rather than in the wake of another induced event.
In closing, I would like to thank the co-authors of this work, who don't yet have blogs of their own.
Friday, 15 November 2013
My first media hack job: "The Truth Behind the Dash for Gas"
The Truth Behind "The Truth Behind the Dash for Gas"
Talk to media people enough, and something like this was inevitable, but it seems that I am the star in a new anti-fracking documentary entitled "The truth behind the dash for gas" (my part starts from about 20 minutes in).
Back in November last year I received an email from a young guy who said he was looking to make his way as a film-maker just out from film-school. His email to me is quoted below:
Given that the very first contact between myself and the film makers was a lie, one can hardly expect the remainder of the film to do any better. I find it especially ironic that the 2nd word in the film title is "truth", while their very first contact with me was an obvious, barefaced and outright lie. It's not worth my time to address the content of the film as a whole, but I do want to comment on the parts in which my comments have been used.
Comment #1: that debate over hydraulic fracturing has descended into a media slanging match, and I don't think anyone could disagree with that. However, the film moves straight to the same science denialism more usually seen in the anti-climate-change world - if you can't trust the Royal Society for advice on scientific matters, the British Geological Survey, or the Geological Society, for matters geological, or Public Health England for public health matters, then I'm not sure where is left for you to turn, and the term conspiracy theorist begins to apply (see my final comment for more in this vein).
As for my own 'close ties', I spent 3 months in the BP Institute in Cambridge as a 20-year-old M.Sci student. While BP provided the funds to set up the lab, the students who do projects there are university students, and have no connection to BP (I certainly spoke to noone from BP while I was there, and in fact the majority of research being done when I was there was on developing energy efficient buildings). I also spent a few months in Rijswijk in Shell's research facility during my Ph.D. During my Ph.D I developed geophysical techniques to ensure safe storage of CO2 in geological reservoirs - so-called CCS, a potential method to mitigate climate change. During this time Shell asked my to come over and help apply some of these methods to their test site at Ketzin, Germany. All of this is made abundantly clear on my website.
Comment #2: I say that in many cases the impacts have been exaggerated. The Scranton Times-Tribune investigated claims made by residents about shale developments in Pennsylvania, finding that 77% of accusations were without substantiation. Surely an example of impacts exaggerated? Equally, even in cases where regulatory breaches by companies have lead to issues - the example of Dimock springs to mind - the impacts of this have been regularly exaggerated. At Dimock, while methane was found to have contaminated groundwater, there was no evidence of fracking fluids in the water. It's not good to have methane in groundwater, and this should be prevented from occurring at all times. However, methane is not toxic or harmful to human health, barring the risk of explosion if it allowed to accumulate in significant amounts. After the company had been cited and forced to repair its wells, levels of methane dropped, returning below the minimum safety levels set by the EPA (a fact never mentioned by activists, who will tell you that once contaminated, an aquifer can never be restored).
Comment #3: The most famous flaming tap in Gasland, the Markham well, had nothing to do with oil and gas drilling. This has been made abundantly clear by the Colorado State regulator (COGCC), which felt the need to release a comment to "correct several errors" in the film. The flaming tap is the headline image of Gasland, it appears in all the trailers and promotional material. That the gas is of biogenic origin, from shallow layers well above those targeted for drilling, implying that gas drilling is not the cause. This film attempts to argue that poor well casing still allowed shallow biogenic methane to migrate. However, the COGCC report makes clear that "there is little or no temporal relationship" between gas drilling in the area and the complaints made about the Markham and McClure wells. This is a fairly massive oversight to be made, one that I think that is worthy of comment. Clearly the film-makers find it easy to relate to other films that are economical with the truth in order to tell a story.
The regulators did rule that a drilling company was at fault in the case of the Ellsworth well. This company reached a settlement with the claimant (again, a fact that the film neglects to mention). The COGCC conducted sampling over a 170 sq mile area, and the Ellsworth well was the only one where any impact was detected. Strangely, we don't get to see Josh Fox setting the Ellsworth taps on fire - one can only guess at why?
The next sleight of hand is either quite clever, or monumentally dumb, I'm really not sure which. They move on to discuss the Duke methane studies, which I have discussed in previous posts here and here. Of course, there are a number of studies performed along along these lines, all of which come to very different conclusions to the Duke study. For some reason the film makers don't mention these (one wonders why). However, these film-makers can't even get the Duke PNAS study facts right! A screen-grab of the PNAS abstract is shown, highlighting an apparent claim that methane was found in 82% of drinking water within 1km of a gas well.
How about we look at that section of the abstract in full:
In fact, you can clearly see that the 82% figure refers to all the water sampled, not just the ones near gas drilling sites. Methane was found in 82% of water samples, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THEY ARE NEAR GAS WELLS OR NOT! Incidentally, this is a similar percentage to that found by Molofsky et al., who sampled a much larger dataset (1,700 samples vs 140 samples), finding that 78% of samples contained methane, regardless of proximity of gas wells. In fact this is why establishing whether shale development has caused problems is so difficult in Pennsylvania - there is already a lot of methane in the groundwater. Where studies have been conducted in areas where natural methane is not present in shallow water, they have not seen an impact from drilling.
I honestly find it hard to believe that this accidental highlighting of parts of two sentences, conveniently removing the context to make a scarier quote, is accidental. Either way it is particularly dumb to hope that people familiar with the source material won't spot the attempted trick.
Comment #4 is about well integrity. The astute among you will notice a cut in the editing between the start and end of my answer. Clearly, other things I've said have been edited out. Sadly, this interview was conducted a year ago, so I can't remember exactly what I said, and back then I was too naive to make my own recordings (not a mistake I'll make again), but presumably it was something that didn't fit with the narrative being portrayed.
The films then cuts to the SLB Oilfield Review from 2003. Always a good litmus test of a shale gas commentator is how they treat this report. Firstly this report covers data from deep offshore in the Gulf of Mexico. This is a very challenging drilling environment, so it's not surprising to have more problems offshore than onshore. The only statistics relevant to onshore UK shale drilling are stats from other onshore wells.
More importantly, the film describes the stats as showing either "leakage" or "failure". In fact, they depict incidents of Sustained Casing Pressure. SCP isn't a good thing, and again it should be avoided, but it doesn't equate to the mass leakage of hydrocarbons into shallow layers. Categorically, these stats have no bearing on the rate at which well integrity issues are causing contamination, which is what, misleadingly, the film tries to claim.
The most obvious place to look for wellbore integrity-related contamination issues from onshore wells drilled under a UK regulatory system, is of course to look onshore in the UK, where we have drilled 2,000 wells already, many of them in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s (making most of them 30 years old at least). One of the few things this film gets right is that whether a well is fracked or not has no bearing on wellbore integrity issues. Therefore, if the statistical claims made in this film were true, there would be 1,000 onshore contamination incidents already. If the bold claim that follows ("all wells leak eventually") were true, we'd surely have 2,000 incidents by now. Clearly the claims made in the film do not add up, because I'm not aware of any problems associated with onshore wells in the UK.
Similarly, after the Piper Alpha disaster, regulations were significantly tightened to prevent such an event ever happening again. Again, the North Sea has not been turned into an environmental wasteland - we're still so keen to eat North Sea cod that there's almost none left!
We can also look to the US, which has hundreds of thousands of onshore wells, and actually examine statistics relating to actual incidents of groundwater contamination, as opposed to SCP. Luckily, the US Groundwater Protection Council has done exactly this, in a study released in 2011. They find that of 187,000 wells drilled in Texas, and 33,000 wells drilled in Ohio, only 21 and 12 wells respectively had seen casing issues leading to contamination, rates of 0.01% and 0.04%.
Comment #5 regards regulatory differences between US and UK, and resulting differences in operating practices. The above statistics show that contamination is not endemic to shale drilling. However, even the handful of cases that have occurred is a handful too many. These few incidences are inevitably the result of poor practice, and/or the contravention of regulations.
While I'm speaking, they cut to some shots of flowback waste pits. What they fail to point out is that these are not allowed in the UK - any waste flowing back from the wells must be stored in double-lined steel tanks. This is with good reason: in the GWPC report I mention above, the majority of drilling-related contamination incidents (172 in Ohio, 190 in Texas) have come from surface activities, not from processes happening under the ground. In the US it is common to store the waste fluid in open, plastic-lined pits. These have been known to overflow during heavy rain, or for the liners to tear, allowing the contents to leak. I think the endless shots of waste-fluid pits that activists like to show indicates either that they are not aware that these are banned in the UK, or that they do know this but don't like to let facts get in the way of the story.
For example, in one well-publicised case XTO opened the valve on one of their tanks, allowing the fluid to flow out into the ground, while in another case a trucker dumped his load into a nearby storm drain, rather than taking it to the treatment plant. This sort of illegal activity should absolutely be prevented, and it is important that regulators keep a sharp eye on operators to ensure that this doesn't happen. But it doesn't show that shale gas development is inherently problematic. Again, we can look the the UK example for dealing with produced water. The existing UK onshore industry handles 70 millions barrels of produced water a year, with no apparent contamination problems.
The next interviewee, Laurence Rankin, is presented a "Former Environment Agency manager", with the obvious intention of making us think that he is an impartial commentator. Since my 3 months as a 20-year-old M.Sci student at the BP Institute is worthy of mention, maybe the film should have also pointed out that he is also a coordinator of the Sefton Green Party and member of Friends of the Earth, so perhaps slightly less impartial than first appearances might suggest. While the Green Party man seems to have a problem with Cuadrilla's activities, the Environment Agency itself doesn't, and hasn't claimed that Cuadrilla have broken any of their regulations. The fact that the Green Party man isn't familiar with fracking, doesn't mean it hasn't happened. For example, horizontal wells have been fracked at Wytch Farm in Dorset. Update - this comment reflected media reports regarding Wytch Farm. Water is injected into the Wytch Farm reservoir, but this is to increase the reservoir pressure and drive oil towards production wells (a common practice in conventional fields), not to fracture the rock.
The use of the term 'slick-water' is another slight of hand, somehow implying that slick-water is somehow worse that what has gone before. In fact, in the good old days it was common to use a mix of gelled gasoline and napalm as the frack fluid. Given the choice of water with 1% chemical additives, or gasoline and napalm as the frack fluid, the use of slick-water represents an improvement. And the fact that there were no specific references to fracking in exploration licenses is that it was considered such a normal part of oilfield and drilling activities (with 10% of existing onshore wells being hydraulically stimulated). The main difference between now and what has gone before is one of scale, with modern treatments using higher volumes, rather than any major differences in the technique itself.
The film moves on to the Cuadrilla-induced earthquake near Blackpool. The next mistake made comes with the claim that the increase in earthquakes seen in US is directly attributable to hydraulic stimulation. In fact, the increase in seismicity is caused by an increase in the volumes of waste fluids, from both conventional and unconventional operations, being disposed of by deep injection into saline aquifers. I know this because I have worked in depth on these events, including writing a report for parliament, because they have implications for CCS. There are no proposals in the UK to dispose of fracking fluids through injection into deep aquifers. As far as I am aware, we do not have suitable deep saline aquifers onshore (although we are targeting such aquifers offshore in the North Sea for CCS). Again, one is left wondering whether the film makers know this and are lying, or simply do not understand the science that is being done in this area?
There is only one case in the US where fracking has triggered seismicity - in the Eola field, Oklahoma, which occurred in January 2011, 3 months before Preese Hall event, but was not reported as such until August 2011, after Preese Hall, and one case in Canada (British Columbia), where events occurred between 2009 and 2012, although they were not reported until August 2012, a long time after Preese Hall. So Preese Hall was the first reported incident of induced seismicity triggered by hydraulic stimulation for shale gas.
With respect to reporting of the earthquake and resulting casing deformation to the Energy Minister, there was no regulatory requirement to report casing deformation to him - this is the role of the HSE. Moreover, I think the actions taken were entirely appropriate - they ceased operations to allow a 6-month scientific study to be conducted, after which the results were reported for DECC, HSE and the rest of the world to read. While we're on the point, all of the casing deformation was within the production casing string, within the target zone of production - it was actually below the depths of the frack stages that triggered the seismicity. It poses no risk whatsoever to the integrity of the well. The figure below shows the well design - the deformation is the little yellow bar right at the bottom.
I think that's it in terms of my contribution to this piece of work. I'll comment briefly on the accusation of "mission-creep" in terms of chemical use - every chemical used in the UK must be permitted by the Environment Agency, and fully disclosed to the public.
One final point in closing: the go-to 'expert' for this film appears to be Ian R. Crane, an ex-oilfield-executive, who gets the final word as far as this film is concerned. I don't usually like to stoop to ad-hom arguments, but as Mr Crane seems to appear on an increasing number of anti-fracking pieces, it'll be worth your time having a look at his profile on RationalWiki, a website dedicated to uncovering cranks, conspiracy theorists, and pseudoscience. If this is the best figure-head that the anti-fracking movement can come up with, I would suggest they need to try a little harder.
UPDATE: I checked out the FrackFreeSomerset website to look for more information. According them, the film is not just "facilitated" by FFS, but in fact "produced" by them.
UPDATE (21/11/2013): The film maker himself has left a comment for me. He is correct to point out that I failed to address my comments of water use. In the film, I describe how much water is used for a single stimulation. Of course, the issue is cumulative effects over time if many wells need to be stimulated. The water use for an individual well (~10,000 - 50,000 cubic metres) sounds like a lot, but it must be placed in context. Between the 3 largest water utilities (Severn Trent, United and Thames), 1.7 billion liters of water are lost to leaks PER DAY. If water companies were able to improve on this by just 1%, we would have available an extra 17,000 cubic metres of water, that's enough water to frack a well every day. If water consumption is your concern, don't blame frackers, get the water utilities to fix their leaks (or at least 1% of their leaks).
Talk to media people enough, and something like this was inevitable, but it seems that I am the star in a new anti-fracking documentary entitled "The truth behind the dash for gas" (my part starts from about 20 minutes in).
Back in November last year I received an email from a young guy who said he was looking to make his way as a film-maker just out from film-school. His email to me is quoted below:
I am putting together a short film about fracking in Somerset. The aim is to present a fair and informative assessment of the potential for fracking in Somerset, the risks and dangers associated with it, and the views of local people. The film and those working on it are independent of both the anti-fracking campaign groups and those who stand to gain from the fracking industry.I think just by watching the first few minutes of the film you can see that their claimed intent "to present a fair and informative assessment of the potential for fracking in Somerset" is barefaced lie. Even more barefaced is their claim that "the film and those working on it are independent of [...] the anti-fracking campaign groups". However, the film has a facebook page, in which it clearly states that the film is facilitated by Frack Free Somerset. The FrackFreeSomerset and FrackOff websites appear prominently in the credits at the end of the film.
Given that the very first contact between myself and the film makers was a lie, one can hardly expect the remainder of the film to do any better. I find it especially ironic that the 2nd word in the film title is "truth", while their very first contact with me was an obvious, barefaced and outright lie. It's not worth my time to address the content of the film as a whole, but I do want to comment on the parts in which my comments have been used.
Comment #1: that debate over hydraulic fracturing has descended into a media slanging match, and I don't think anyone could disagree with that. However, the film moves straight to the same science denialism more usually seen in the anti-climate-change world - if you can't trust the Royal Society for advice on scientific matters, the British Geological Survey, or the Geological Society, for matters geological, or Public Health England for public health matters, then I'm not sure where is left for you to turn, and the term conspiracy theorist begins to apply (see my final comment for more in this vein).
As for my own 'close ties', I spent 3 months in the BP Institute in Cambridge as a 20-year-old M.Sci student. While BP provided the funds to set up the lab, the students who do projects there are university students, and have no connection to BP (I certainly spoke to noone from BP while I was there, and in fact the majority of research being done when I was there was on developing energy efficient buildings). I also spent a few months in Rijswijk in Shell's research facility during my Ph.D. During my Ph.D I developed geophysical techniques to ensure safe storage of CO2 in geological reservoirs - so-called CCS, a potential method to mitigate climate change. During this time Shell asked my to come over and help apply some of these methods to their test site at Ketzin, Germany. All of this is made abundantly clear on my website.
Comment #2: I say that in many cases the impacts have been exaggerated. The Scranton Times-Tribune investigated claims made by residents about shale developments in Pennsylvania, finding that 77% of accusations were without substantiation. Surely an example of impacts exaggerated? Equally, even in cases where regulatory breaches by companies have lead to issues - the example of Dimock springs to mind - the impacts of this have been regularly exaggerated. At Dimock, while methane was found to have contaminated groundwater, there was no evidence of fracking fluids in the water. It's not good to have methane in groundwater, and this should be prevented from occurring at all times. However, methane is not toxic or harmful to human health, barring the risk of explosion if it allowed to accumulate in significant amounts. After the company had been cited and forced to repair its wells, levels of methane dropped, returning below the minimum safety levels set by the EPA (a fact never mentioned by activists, who will tell you that once contaminated, an aquifer can never be restored).
Comment #3: The most famous flaming tap in Gasland, the Markham well, had nothing to do with oil and gas drilling. This has been made abundantly clear by the Colorado State regulator (COGCC), which felt the need to release a comment to "correct several errors" in the film. The flaming tap is the headline image of Gasland, it appears in all the trailers and promotional material. That the gas is of biogenic origin, from shallow layers well above those targeted for drilling, implying that gas drilling is not the cause. This film attempts to argue that poor well casing still allowed shallow biogenic methane to migrate. However, the COGCC report makes clear that "there is little or no temporal relationship" between gas drilling in the area and the complaints made about the Markham and McClure wells. This is a fairly massive oversight to be made, one that I think that is worthy of comment. Clearly the film-makers find it easy to relate to other films that are economical with the truth in order to tell a story.
The regulators did rule that a drilling company was at fault in the case of the Ellsworth well. This company reached a settlement with the claimant (again, a fact that the film neglects to mention). The COGCC conducted sampling over a 170 sq mile area, and the Ellsworth well was the only one where any impact was detected. Strangely, we don't get to see Josh Fox setting the Ellsworth taps on fire - one can only guess at why?
The next sleight of hand is either quite clever, or monumentally dumb, I'm really not sure which. They move on to discuss the Duke methane studies, which I have discussed in previous posts here and here. Of course, there are a number of studies performed along along these lines, all of which come to very different conclusions to the Duke study. For some reason the film makers don't mention these (one wonders why). However, these film-makers can't even get the Duke PNAS study facts right! A screen-grab of the PNAS abstract is shown, highlighting an apparent claim that methane was found in 82% of drinking water within 1km of a gas well.
How about we look at that section of the abstract in full:
In fact, you can clearly see that the 82% figure refers to all the water sampled, not just the ones near gas drilling sites. Methane was found in 82% of water samples, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THEY ARE NEAR GAS WELLS OR NOT! Incidentally, this is a similar percentage to that found by Molofsky et al., who sampled a much larger dataset (1,700 samples vs 140 samples), finding that 78% of samples contained methane, regardless of proximity of gas wells. In fact this is why establishing whether shale development has caused problems is so difficult in Pennsylvania - there is already a lot of methane in the groundwater. Where studies have been conducted in areas where natural methane is not present in shallow water, they have not seen an impact from drilling.
I honestly find it hard to believe that this accidental highlighting of parts of two sentences, conveniently removing the context to make a scarier quote, is accidental. Either way it is particularly dumb to hope that people familiar with the source material won't spot the attempted trick.
Comment #4 is about well integrity. The astute among you will notice a cut in the editing between the start and end of my answer. Clearly, other things I've said have been edited out. Sadly, this interview was conducted a year ago, so I can't remember exactly what I said, and back then I was too naive to make my own recordings (not a mistake I'll make again), but presumably it was something that didn't fit with the narrative being portrayed.
The films then cuts to the SLB Oilfield Review from 2003. Always a good litmus test of a shale gas commentator is how they treat this report. Firstly this report covers data from deep offshore in the Gulf of Mexico. This is a very challenging drilling environment, so it's not surprising to have more problems offshore than onshore. The only statistics relevant to onshore UK shale drilling are stats from other onshore wells.
More importantly, the film describes the stats as showing either "leakage" or "failure". In fact, they depict incidents of Sustained Casing Pressure. SCP isn't a good thing, and again it should be avoided, but it doesn't equate to the mass leakage of hydrocarbons into shallow layers. Categorically, these stats have no bearing on the rate at which well integrity issues are causing contamination, which is what, misleadingly, the film tries to claim.
The most obvious place to look for wellbore integrity-related contamination issues from onshore wells drilled under a UK regulatory system, is of course to look onshore in the UK, where we have drilled 2,000 wells already, many of them in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s (making most of them 30 years old at least). One of the few things this film gets right is that whether a well is fracked or not has no bearing on wellbore integrity issues. Therefore, if the statistical claims made in this film were true, there would be 1,000 onshore contamination incidents already. If the bold claim that follows ("all wells leak eventually") were true, we'd surely have 2,000 incidents by now. Clearly the claims made in the film do not add up, because I'm not aware of any problems associated with onshore wells in the UK.
Similarly, after the Piper Alpha disaster, regulations were significantly tightened to prevent such an event ever happening again. Again, the North Sea has not been turned into an environmental wasteland - we're still so keen to eat North Sea cod that there's almost none left!
We can also look to the US, which has hundreds of thousands of onshore wells, and actually examine statistics relating to actual incidents of groundwater contamination, as opposed to SCP. Luckily, the US Groundwater Protection Council has done exactly this, in a study released in 2011. They find that of 187,000 wells drilled in Texas, and 33,000 wells drilled in Ohio, only 21 and 12 wells respectively had seen casing issues leading to contamination, rates of 0.01% and 0.04%.
Comment #5 regards regulatory differences between US and UK, and resulting differences in operating practices. The above statistics show that contamination is not endemic to shale drilling. However, even the handful of cases that have occurred is a handful too many. These few incidences are inevitably the result of poor practice, and/or the contravention of regulations.
While I'm speaking, they cut to some shots of flowback waste pits. What they fail to point out is that these are not allowed in the UK - any waste flowing back from the wells must be stored in double-lined steel tanks. This is with good reason: in the GWPC report I mention above, the majority of drilling-related contamination incidents (172 in Ohio, 190 in Texas) have come from surface activities, not from processes happening under the ground. In the US it is common to store the waste fluid in open, plastic-lined pits. These have been known to overflow during heavy rain, or for the liners to tear, allowing the contents to leak. I think the endless shots of waste-fluid pits that activists like to show indicates either that they are not aware that these are banned in the UK, or that they do know this but don't like to let facts get in the way of the story.
For example, in one well-publicised case XTO opened the valve on one of their tanks, allowing the fluid to flow out into the ground, while in another case a trucker dumped his load into a nearby storm drain, rather than taking it to the treatment plant. This sort of illegal activity should absolutely be prevented, and it is important that regulators keep a sharp eye on operators to ensure that this doesn't happen. But it doesn't show that shale gas development is inherently problematic. Again, we can look the the UK example for dealing with produced water. The existing UK onshore industry handles 70 millions barrels of produced water a year, with no apparent contamination problems.
The next interviewee, Laurence Rankin, is presented a "Former Environment Agency manager", with the obvious intention of making us think that he is an impartial commentator. Since my 3 months as a 20-year-old M.Sci student at the BP Institute is worthy of mention, maybe the film should have also pointed out that he is also a coordinator of the Sefton Green Party and member of Friends of the Earth, so perhaps slightly less impartial than first appearances might suggest. While the Green Party man seems to have a problem with Cuadrilla's activities, the Environment Agency itself doesn't, and hasn't claimed that Cuadrilla have broken any of their regulations. The fact that the Green Party man isn't familiar with fracking, doesn't mean it hasn't happened.
The use of the term 'slick-water' is another slight of hand, somehow implying that slick-water is somehow worse that what has gone before. In fact, in the good old days it was common to use a mix of gelled gasoline and napalm as the frack fluid. Given the choice of water with 1% chemical additives, or gasoline and napalm as the frack fluid, the use of slick-water represents an improvement. And the fact that there were no specific references to fracking in exploration licenses is that it was considered such a normal part of oilfield and drilling activities (with 10% of existing onshore wells being hydraulically stimulated). The main difference between now and what has gone before is one of scale, with modern treatments using higher volumes, rather than any major differences in the technique itself.
The film moves on to the Cuadrilla-induced earthquake near Blackpool. The next mistake made comes with the claim that the increase in earthquakes seen in US is directly attributable to hydraulic stimulation. In fact, the increase in seismicity is caused by an increase in the volumes of waste fluids, from both conventional and unconventional operations, being disposed of by deep injection into saline aquifers. I know this because I have worked in depth on these events, including writing a report for parliament, because they have implications for CCS. There are no proposals in the UK to dispose of fracking fluids through injection into deep aquifers. As far as I am aware, we do not have suitable deep saline aquifers onshore (although we are targeting such aquifers offshore in the North Sea for CCS). Again, one is left wondering whether the film makers know this and are lying, or simply do not understand the science that is being done in this area?
There is only one case in the US where fracking has triggered seismicity - in the Eola field, Oklahoma, which occurred in January 2011, 3 months before Preese Hall event, but was not reported as such until August 2011, after Preese Hall, and one case in Canada (British Columbia), where events occurred between 2009 and 2012, although they were not reported until August 2012, a long time after Preese Hall. So Preese Hall was the first reported incident of induced seismicity triggered by hydraulic stimulation for shale gas.
With respect to reporting of the earthquake and resulting casing deformation to the Energy Minister, there was no regulatory requirement to report casing deformation to him - this is the role of the HSE. Moreover, I think the actions taken were entirely appropriate - they ceased operations to allow a 6-month scientific study to be conducted, after which the results were reported for DECC, HSE and the rest of the world to read. While we're on the point, all of the casing deformation was within the production casing string, within the target zone of production - it was actually below the depths of the frack stages that triggered the seismicity. It poses no risk whatsoever to the integrity of the well. The figure below shows the well design - the deformation is the little yellow bar right at the bottom.
I think that's it in terms of my contribution to this piece of work. I'll comment briefly on the accusation of "mission-creep" in terms of chemical use - every chemical used in the UK must be permitted by the Environment Agency, and fully disclosed to the public.
One final point in closing: the go-to 'expert' for this film appears to be Ian R. Crane, an ex-oilfield-executive, who gets the final word as far as this film is concerned. I don't usually like to stoop to ad-hom arguments, but as Mr Crane seems to appear on an increasing number of anti-fracking pieces, it'll be worth your time having a look at his profile on RationalWiki, a website dedicated to uncovering cranks, conspiracy theorists, and pseudoscience. If this is the best figure-head that the anti-fracking movement can come up with, I would suggest they need to try a little harder.
UPDATE: I checked out the FrackFreeSomerset website to look for more information. According them, the film is not just "facilitated" by FFS, but in fact "produced" by them.
UPDATE (21/11/2013): The film maker himself has left a comment for me. He is correct to point out that I failed to address my comments of water use. In the film, I describe how much water is used for a single stimulation. Of course, the issue is cumulative effects over time if many wells need to be stimulated. The water use for an individual well (~10,000 - 50,000 cubic metres) sounds like a lot, but it must be placed in context. Between the 3 largest water utilities (Severn Trent, United and Thames), 1.7 billion liters of water are lost to leaks PER DAY. If water companies were able to improve on this by just 1%, we would have available an extra 17,000 cubic metres of water, that's enough water to frack a well every day. If water consumption is your concern, don't blame frackers, get the water utilities to fix their leaks (or at least 1% of their leaks).
Sunday, 28 April 2013
Shale gas and Cash-for-Locals?
This week the Parliamentary Select Committee for Energy and Climate Change released its assessment of 'The Impact of Shale Gas on Energy Markets'.
I particularly enjoyed conclusion 5:
More interesting, in my view at least, is conclusion 6:
In the US, mineral rights are generally owned by the person that owns the land. This means that if your farm sits on top of some shale gas, you stand to benefit directly from royalties from the gas development (try sticking the default numbers into this calculation engine). As a result, shale gas is generally wildly popular among rural American communities.
However, in the UK, in most cases the mineral rights being to the Crown Estate (i.e. 'er maj, gawd bless 'er), meaning that royalties from gas production goes straight to central government, rather than via local people.
Of course, that's not to say that shale gas development will not benefit a local community. While many of the jobs involved are high tech, and as such cannot be easily accessed by local people, there are plenty of roles for relatively unskilled workers, particularly in construction and haulage. Moreover, however the influx of skilled workers need places to stay, to eat and to drink, to do their laundry. They need to buy petrol, buy stuff from convenience stores, the list goes on. In Pennsylvania you hear of companies block-booking whole hotels for 6 month stretches to house the workers, restaurants full to bursting every lunchtime and bars full in the evenings.
However, UK public opinion continues to waver in regards to shale gas development. So, is it right to consider setting up community benefit schemes, whereby some of the profits from gas development are injected directly back into the local community? Or is this all a bribe to get people to accept something that they'd otherwise not be comfortable with?
In all honesty, I'm not sure I know the answer to this. On the one hand, shale gas development will involve some local disruption. Not the scare stories of exploding taps, blighted aquifers and general geological disruption - the so-called 'geological dread factor' - but increases in traffic, construction sites, laying new pipeline etc. Therefore it does seem reasonable that a community should receive some recompense for that. On the other hand, offering what could easily look like little more than a bung could make it look like shale gas has something to hide, when so long as the government ensures that there is 'a robust factual response by government to scare stories' it shouldn't have to.
It is worth noting at this juncture that such schemes seem to be common for wind farms (see here and here for two randomly selected examples) and nuclear power stations. I have enjoyed seeing how the language changes depending on your preferred form of energy, particularly wind farm proponents who have touted these community wind farm benefits as a great example of how wind can benefit a community, while if shale gas companies suggest the same thing then it is little more than a bribe.
So I'm still not sure whether this is a good idea or not. Regardless, in the meantime, IGas have drilled two exploration wells in Lancashire.
I particularly enjoyed conclusion 5:
One key to community acceptance will be a robust factual response by government to scare storiesI wonder who/what they could be referring to there....
More interesting, in my view at least, is conclusion 6:
Communities who are affected by shale gas development should expect to receive, and share in, some of the benefits of the developmentor, as the Guardian would put it: Fracking firms should offer sweeteners to locals. It's an interesting idea, but I'm still torn between whether it is a good one or not.
In the US, mineral rights are generally owned by the person that owns the land. This means that if your farm sits on top of some shale gas, you stand to benefit directly from royalties from the gas development (try sticking the default numbers into this calculation engine). As a result, shale gas is generally wildly popular among rural American communities.
However, in the UK, in most cases the mineral rights being to the Crown Estate (i.e. 'er maj, gawd bless 'er), meaning that royalties from gas production goes straight to central government, rather than via local people.
Of course, that's not to say that shale gas development will not benefit a local community. While many of the jobs involved are high tech, and as such cannot be easily accessed by local people, there are plenty of roles for relatively unskilled workers, particularly in construction and haulage. Moreover, however the influx of skilled workers need places to stay, to eat and to drink, to do their laundry. They need to buy petrol, buy stuff from convenience stores, the list goes on. In Pennsylvania you hear of companies block-booking whole hotels for 6 month stretches to house the workers, restaurants full to bursting every lunchtime and bars full in the evenings.
However, UK public opinion continues to waver in regards to shale gas development. So, is it right to consider setting up community benefit schemes, whereby some of the profits from gas development are injected directly back into the local community? Or is this all a bribe to get people to accept something that they'd otherwise not be comfortable with?
In all honesty, I'm not sure I know the answer to this. On the one hand, shale gas development will involve some local disruption. Not the scare stories of exploding taps, blighted aquifers and general geological disruption - the so-called 'geological dread factor' - but increases in traffic, construction sites, laying new pipeline etc. Therefore it does seem reasonable that a community should receive some recompense for that. On the other hand, offering what could easily look like little more than a bung could make it look like shale gas has something to hide, when so long as the government ensures that there is 'a robust factual response by government to scare stories' it shouldn't have to.
It is worth noting at this juncture that such schemes seem to be common for wind farms (see here and here for two randomly selected examples) and nuclear power stations. I have enjoyed seeing how the language changes depending on your preferred form of energy, particularly wind farm proponents who have touted these community wind farm benefits as a great example of how wind can benefit a community, while if shale gas companies suggest the same thing then it is little more than a bribe.
So I'm still not sure whether this is a good idea or not. Regardless, in the meantime, IGas have drilled two exploration wells in Lancashire.
Labels:
DECC,
fracking,
Politics,
Public perception,
shale gas
Monday, 17 December 2012
Ed Davey's Written Statement on Shale Gas: Highlights
Well done if you got to the end of my previous post, Ed Davey's full statement on shale gas extraction. In case you didn't, I've selected the highlights with respect to induced seismicity:
And who gets to decide? Industry themselves? Probably not the wisest move. DECC themselves? Do they have the expertise - not really? <begins shameless self promotion> how about independent academic experts?< /ends shameless self promotion>
All told, good news for shale gas companies looking at the UK, but even better news for service companies (and researchers) with experience in microseismic monitoring!
So any new regulations will be applied to all wells.I have concluded that appropriate controls are available to mitigate the risks of undesirable seismic activity. Those new controls will be required by my Department for all future shale gas wells.
Seems reasonable that the maximum likely quake is the same as those typically seen in background rates.the amount of energy likely to be stored in these faults is not large, and the largest earthquake likely in this area from such a cause is assessed at magnitude 3.
Operators will first be required to review the available information on faults in the area of the proposed well to minimise the risk of activating any fault by fracking, and required to monitor background seismicity before operations commence. Real time seismic monitoring will also continue during operations, with these subject to a “traffic-light” regime, so that operations can be quickly paused and data reviewed if unusual levels of seismic activity is observed.Very interesting, and good news for service companies. The 'available information' on faults in the area must surely imply 3D seismic surveys prior to any fracking. Good news if you are WesternGeco et al. Also, real time (micro)seismic monitoring is required. Good news for microseismic companies (and researchers like me).
Again, more good news on real time monitoring. I'm not sure how we'd classify an 'abnormal' event though.Real-time recording of earthquakes during and for 24 hours after each stage of the frac will be analysed to look for abnormal induced events amidst the normal background seismicity.
To monitor the growth in height of the fracture will require accurate microseismic monitoring, with depths in particular being well constrained. This means deployments of significant arrays. Chucking a couple of broadband seismometers nearby will not be sufficient - large dense surface arrays or downhole arrays will be required.Operators will also be required to monitor the growth in height of the frac away from the borehole. This will allow the operator to evaluate the effectiveness of the frac, but also ensure that the actual fracture is conforming to its design, and that it remains contained and far away from any aquifers.
Cuadrilla's 'traffic light' system will remain in place. This states that fracking must stop if an event larger than M0.5 is induced. In principle this is a sensible limit. However, it throws up questions of it's own, because in science there are such things as error bars. There's no such thing as an M0.5 event. There's M0.5 ± some value. There are also several different ways of computing magnitude, which don't always produce the same value. The question is then: do you take the highest possible value, the lowest possible value, or some mean (most probable) value as the point at which the traffic light red is exceeded?the remedial action level for the traffic light system (that is, the “red light”) will be set at magnitude 0.5 (far below a perceptible surface event, but larger than the expected level generated by the fracturing of the rock).
And who gets to decide? Industry themselves? Probably not the wisest move. DECC themselves? Do they have the expertise - not really? <begins shameless self promotion> how about independent academic experts?< /ends shameless self promotion>
All told, good news for shale gas companies looking at the UK, but even better news for service companies (and researchers) with experience in microseismic monitoring!
Ed Davey's Written Statement on Shale Gas: In Full
The news this week has been buzzing with the recent decision by DECC to allow hydraulic fracturing in the UK to continue. Here's the Energy Minister's statement in full:
Did you get to the end? Well done! I'll pick out my highlights in a subsequent post....Shale gas development has been of increasing importance in the US for some years, but exploration has only just begun in the UK. The potential of producing shale gas from a suitable formation can only be established by fracturing the rock, and it happens that the fracturing of the first shale gas well in the UK, at Preese Hall near Blackpool last year, resulted in noticeable seismic tremors. These were not at a level which could cause any damage, but seismic activity at this level was not an expected consequence of the fracking activity, and DECC therefore suspended all fracking operations for shale gas pending a thorough investigation of the causes of these tremors and the scope for mitigation of seismic risks in any future operations of this type. I am announcing today the outcome of that investigation and the way forward on exploration for shale gas in the UK.Having carefully reviewed the evidence with the aid of independent experts, and with the aid of an authoritative review of the scientific and engineering evidence on shale gas extraction conducted by the Royal Academy of Engineering and the Royal Society, I have concluded that appropriate controls are available to mitigate the risks of undesirable seismic activity. Those new controls will be required by my Department for all future shale gas wells. On that basis, I am in principle prepared to consent to new fracking proposals for shale gas, where all other necessary permissions and consents are in place.This opens the way to a resumption of work on exploration for shale gas, though I stress the importance of the other regulatory consents, and planning permission, which are also necessary for these activities, and which must be in place before my Department will consider consent to individual operations. In practice, it will be well into next year before any new exploration work has all the necessary consents to proceed. Whether any production operations may be proposed will depend on the success of the exploration work, but, in any event, this is likely to be some years away yet.The background is that, in most oil and gas fields worldwide, the oil or gas is extracted from a relatively porous rock, usually a sandstone or calcareous rock, in which it has been accumulated or trapped. The original source of the petroleum however lies elsewhere, in deeper formations of non-porous rocks classed as shales. These shale source rocks are widely distributed around the world, and exist in many areas of the UK.
It has long been recognised that very substantial quantities of oil and gas were trapped in these shales, but the scope for its economic extraction seemed small - largely because the rock in its natural state allows the oil and gas to flow into a well only at very low rates. In the last twenty years, however, further development of oilfield technology, first in the Barnett Shale in Texas, has enabled economic large-scale extraction of gas, and oil, from these source rocks.One of the key technologies involved is hydraulic fracturing, or fracking. This is carried out by pumping water at high pressure into the shale formation, which forms blade-like fractures, a few millimetres wide and extending several hundred feet away from the well bore. Once the fractures have started to form, sand or a similar material is pumped in, to hold the fractures open once the pressure is released. The fractures can continue to grow only so long as pressure is maintained. When the fractures have sufficiently developed, the pressure is released and the frac fluid, followed by the released gas, can flow into the well. The process is not novel and is also widely used in conventional oil and gas production, It is however, more intensively used in the production of shale gas.It has been recognised for some time that injection of large quantities of water into the subsurface can cause seismic tremors. This has happened, for example, in those areas of the US in which disposal of waste water into deep injection wells is permitted. However, the quantities of water used in fracking are substantially smaller, and up until the time of the Preese Hall tremors, no association had been recognised between injection of these smaller volumes and any seismic activity. The analysis carried out by Cuadrilla’s advisers, and confirmed by our independent panel of experts, has however concluded that the most likely cause of the tremors is the movement of the frac fluid into and along a fault which was already under stress. The additional pressure of the fluid allowed the fault to move, releasing the energy stored in the fault and resulting in the perceived tremors at the surface.Our experts advise that there are many other faults in the Lancashire area which similarly have unrelieved stresses, and could in a similar scenario likewise result in tremors. Because of the relatively weak nature of these rocks, the amount of energy likely to be stored in these faults is not large, and the largest earthquake likely in this area from such a cause is assessed at magnitude 3. While this is not large enough to cause significant material damage, it would be perceptible and disturbing. I consider that new controls to minimise disturbance to those living and working nearby, and to prevent the risk of any damage, are now a prerequisite for further exploration.I am therefore announcing new controls to mitigate these risks, which will be applied to all future fracking operations for shale gas. As this is a developing area of knowledge, I stress that we will be moving forward with appropriate caution. The controls are not at this stage to be regarded as definitive, but as appropriate precautionary measures for our present state of knowledge. Initial operations under these controls will be subject to careful scrutiny to ensure the effectiveness of the controls. And they will be reviewed, as experience develops, to ensure that they are proportionate to the risks. The controls will be enforced by my Department, though the data obtained will of course be shared with other regulators.Operators will first be required to review the available information on faults in the area of the proposed well to minimise the risk of activating any fault by fracking, and required to monitor background seismicity before operations commence. Real time seismic monitoring will also continue during operations, with these subject to a “traffic-light” regime, so that operations can be quickly paused and data reviewed if unusual levels of seismic activity is observed.We will also be requiring operators to take a more cautious approach to the duration and volumes of fluid used in the fracking itself. A fracking plan will be required to be submitted to my Department before consent is given to any fracking. The fracking plan should be progressive, starting with the injection of small volumes of fluid and analysing the resulting data carefully before the full stage. Each stage of the frac will be carefully designed to use just enough fluid to create a fracture sufficient to enable gas to flow. A flow-back period will be required immediately after each stage to re-balance the pressures. Real-time recording of earthquakes during and for 24 hours after each stage of the frac will be analysed to look for abnormal induced events amidst the normal background seismicity.Operators will also be required to monitor the growth in height of the frac away from the borehole. This will allow the operator to evaluate the effectiveness of the frac, but also ensure that the actual fracture is conforming to its design, and that it remains contained and far away from any aquifers.So far as Cuadrilla’s current exploration programme in Lancashire is concerned, the remedial action level for the traffic light system (that is, the “red light”) will be set at magnitude 0.5 (far below a perceptible surface event, but larger than the expected level generated by the fracturing of the rock). I consider that this is an appropriately precautionary approach. We received representations in our consultation that this is too cautious, by comparison with the control protocols established for geothermal energy, construction and quarrying projects. I emphasise that this level is adopted only for fracking operations for shale gas, and the reasons for setting it at this level are entirely specific to the context. And it may well prove to be the case that, as our experience of applying this type of control to fracking operations develops, it can be confirmed that trigger levels can be adjusted upwards without compromising the effectiveness of the controls.For the first few operations, DECC will have an independent expert on site to observe the operator’s conformance to the protocols we have established and to monitor the operator’s interpretation of data. We will therefore be able to learn as much as possible from these first operations and to put the lessons promptly into effect. But it would clearly not be right, in our present state of knowledge, to attempt to establish definitive standards, and I have preferred to start on an explicitly cautious basis.At the present time, no applications for consent to fracking operations for shale gas are outstanding, and it is too soon to say exactly how the new protocols will be applied to any such proposals which may come forward in other basins. I can say that we will apply the same principles, of careful prior analysis of the risk of seismic activity, progressive design of the fracking process and feedback from the emerging data, and systematic monitoring by the operators before, during and after the operations. We will also expect operators to make monitoring data promptly available to the public.As I have noted, fracking is not exclusively associated with shale gas extraction, and fracking operations using smaller volumes of fluid have been carried out both onshore and offshore the UK for many years. These have not to date been associated with any seismic risk, nor is there any evidence for such risks from elsewhere. However, DECC will apply proportionate scrutiny to the possibility. Oil and gas operators proposing fracking will be required to submit an analysis of the risks of any seismic activity being caused by the proposed operations, to conduct appropriate monitoring, and to inform planning authorities and local residents. Appropriate levels of control will be imposed by DECC where the assessed risk is not negligible.These new controls on seismic risks do not remove any of the existing regulatory controls and requirements. Consistent with previous practice, my Department will not give consent to specific fracking operations until all other consents are in place, including in particular planning permission, the obtaining of environmental permits from the Environment Agency or the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) as the case may be, and scrutiny by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE. Separate guidance is available from local planning authorities and regulators on how to acquire the relevant permissions and permits. Both the Environment Agency and SEPA have published sector-specific guidance for the shale gas industry.However, I am well aware, in particular from the responses to our consultation on the report of our independent experts, that many people, including residents of Lancashire and other areas where shale gas exploration may be contemplated, have many other concerns besides the seismic risks, and it is only right that I should say how these other concerns are being addressed.The development of shale gas in the US has been accompanied by an increasing level of debate on its environmental impacts. Many of the incidents reported have, on investigation, not been shown to be connected with oil and gas activity. However, they have given rise to concerns which in themselves are entirely reasonable. Residents in those areas want to be assured that their water will not be contaminated with gas or toxic chemicals, and the air will not be contaminated with noxious gases; that there will be no threat of damage from earthquakes; and that other kinds of disturbance such as traffic, lights and noise will be kept under control. In considering these concerns, I have had the benefit of the earlier report on shale gas by the Energy and Climate Change Committee, and many authoritative reports from the US, including two from the Secretary of Energy’s Advisory Board.I have also had the benefit of the comprehensive and authoritative review of the risks of fracking by the Royal Society and Royal Academy of Engineering which I have already mentioned. I can announce that the Government accepts all the recommendations of the academies’ report addressed to it. Work is already in hand to implement these recommendations, so far as the current phase of exploration activity is concerned. One further recommendation is being considered by the Research Councils to whom it was addressed.The reports from US regulators and review bodies do confirm that gas developments there have, on occasion, led to water contamination. There are relatively few confirmed instances of this – most complaints on investigation have proved to be attributable to causes other than gas production. And no case has yet come to light in which it has been confirmed that fracking has contaminated an aquifer. But the instances of contamination which have occurred confirm the need for the industry to consistently apply good practice, and the need for proper scrutiny and oversight of the industry to ensure that this is in fact done.So far as the UK is concerned, I believe that the industry has a good record, and that there are already in place robust regulatory controls on all oil and gas activities. On water contamination, first, all such operations are subject to scrutiny by the appropriate environment agency (the Environment Agency in respect of England and for the time being of Wales; and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency in respect of Scotland). It is an offence to cause or knowingly permit poisonous noxious or polluting matter to enter controlled waters, which include ground waters. The environment agencies are statutory consultees in the planning process, and have to be consulted on all proposed borehole operations. A permit from the Environment Agency is required where fluids containing pollutants are injected into rock formations that contain groundwater. A permit may also be needed if the activity poses an unacceptable risk of mobilising natural substances that could then cause pollution. The permit will specify any necessary limits on the activity, any requirements for monitoring, the chemicals which may be used, and any appropriate limits on permissible concentrations. Regulators will take a risk based approach, and if the activity poses an unacceptable risk to the environment, it will not be allowed.The academies’ report, and that of the Select Committee, also emphasise the importance in this context of the integrity of the well. This issue is central to the regulation of the safety of well operations by the HSE. The Executive have to be notified of all drilling operations for oil or gas, and will scrutinise the well design and operational plan. Additionally, the regulations require a full review of the proposed and actual well operations by an independent competent person, the “well examiner”. The academies in their report commented that this independent review is highly valuable, and made recommendations for strengthening it, which we of course accept and are already working on.So far as the use of chemicals is concerned, the environment agencies take a risk-based approach to the regulation of the use of chemicals in shale gas fracking activities. The hazard potential of all substances proposed to be injected into the ground will be assessed and the use of substances hazardous to groundwater will not be permitted. The identity of all substances proposed for injection, and the agency’s conclusions on their hazard potential, will be publicly available.Concern has also been expressed about the quantities of water used in fracking, or the disposal of waste water from the process. The water used may of course be obtained from licensed suppliers, but if directly abstracted by the operators, requires a licence from the environment agency. Licences will only be given where the agency is satisfied that a sustainable supply is obtainable.Equally, disposal of waste water is subject to scrutiny by the agencies and will require a permit. The waste water from the operations in Lancashire has been found to contain low levels of radioactivity. A case-specific radiological assessment is required in support of any application for a permit for the disposal of radioactive waste. The agency will critically review any such assessment, and will only issue a permit if satisfied.
Concern has also been raised about the possibility of fracking leading to subsidence, but this is not considered a risk because of the strength and load-bearing characteristics of these rocks. And this is borne out by practical experience, because there is no report from the US of subsidence attributable to fracking, although the number of wells which have been fracked for shale gas is now in the hundreds of thousands.A further major area of concerns was with the impacts of normal operations in terms of noise, traffic, impacts on health, etc. All proposals for oil and gas exploration require planning permission from the relevant minerals planning authority. The National Planning Policy Framework requires planning authorities to assess applications for all minerals developments so as to ensure that permitted operations do not have unacceptable adverse impacts on the natural or historical environment or on human health, including from noise, dust, visual intrusion, or migration of contamination from the site. In doing so, they should take into account the cumulative effects of multiple impacts from individual sites and/or a number of sites in a locality. Conditions can be placed on working hours at the site, numbers of traffic movements, etc., to ensure that any such impacts on local residents remain within acceptable bounds.Other concerns which have been expressed are not to do with the current phase of exploration work but with the implications of a possible future move to production operations, if the exploration is successful. It is by no means certain that any such operations will ever be proposed, but if they were, a different set of considerations would arise, which I address further below. But as regards the concerns which have very reasonably been expressed about the current phase of exploration operations, I consider that the consistent application of good practice by the industry, supplemented by the additional action to control seismic hazards which I am announcing today, will ensure that there will be no unacceptable damage to the environment, or threat to the health of local residents, or interference with their lives.I also consider that the existing regulatory framework already provides the means to ensure that the industry does apply good practice throughout its operations; and that it will do so consistently. But we are taking further steps to reinforce the regime. We have already set up a Strategy Group on Shale Gas at senior official level, with representation from the main Departments engaged in shale gas regulation, the Environment Agency and the HSE, to ensure that the work of the various bodies is well-coordinated. That group can already point to some successes in improving the coordination of regulation, for example, planned joint inspections of fracking operations by the HSE and the EA. And in the Gas Generation Strategy published last week, I announced that a new Office of Unconventional Gas and Oil will be set up in DECC to support this work as well as providing a single point of contact for investors and ensuring a streamlined regulatory process.Accordingly, I am satisfied that fracking for shale gas can now in principle resume, and I will be prepared to consent to new proposals, subject to case-by-case scrutiny by my Department, to the new requirements to mitigate seismic hazards, and to confirmation that all other necessary permissions and consents are in place.I should also mention one further outcome of the investigation of the tremors at Preese Hall. DECC has come to the conclusion that Cuadrilla’s response to the occurrence of the tremors demonstrated some weaknesses in its management of environmental risks. This conclusion has been discussed with the company, and they have in consequence reinforced their overall management structure, including by assigning to one board member specific responsibility for health and safety measures, and by reinforcing technical skills within the operational team. The effectiveness of these changes, and the resulting revised structure, is at present being reviewed for Cuadrilla by external consultants. Further fracking operations by Cuadrilla are in any case dependent upon the obtaining of new planning permissions and Environment Agency permits: but my final consent to new fracking operations will not be given until the conclusions of the external consultants have been discussed with the company, and any remaining points of concern addressed to the Department’s satisfaction.As regards the implications of any future move to large-scale production, the concerns are principally of two kinds: on the one hand, concerns about the local or regional impacts on questions such as traffic movements, noise, night-time lighting, etc., or on the health of people living in the vicinity, or on regional water resources, or on tourism and other aspects of the local economy; on the other, concerns about wider issues including the implications of large scale shale gas production for climate change, for the UK’s climate change policies or for renewables investment.As regards the local or regional impacts, it should be noted that the planning system requires permission to be obtained separately for exploration and production activities (and for any appraisal phase where distinguishable). There will therefore be a full opportunity to consider the local and regional impacts, including cumulative impacts, of any proposals to initiate production activities, before any such development takes place.Planning procedures of course already provide for full consultation with communities who may be affected, and the planning authorities may require an Environmental Impact Assessment to be carried out. However, the academies have in addition recommended that an Environmental Risk Assessment should be mandatory for all shale gas operations, involving the participation of local communities at the earliest possible opportunity, and that this assessment should address risks across the entire lifecycle of shale gas extraction.DECC will therefore take steps to enhance the existing frameworks for consultation and consenting to these activities, in line with these recommendations. Licensees will be required to carry out a comprehensive high-level assessment of environmental risks, including risks to human health, and covering the full cycle of the proposed operations, including well abandonment; and to consult with stakeholders including local communities, as early as practicable in the development of their proposals. The scope of these assessments would naturally be framed by the operations proposed, so that prospective future production operations would not be in scope for an assessment drawn up for exploration activities. Cuadrilla has been asked to conduct such an assessment in relation to their proposals for further exploration work in Lancashire.This high-level assessment may inform the work entailed by risk assessments already required, for example under the Environmental Permitting Regulations, and which are consulted on separately by the Environment Agency, as well as work entailed by any Environmental Impact Assessment which may be required by the local planning authority. And together, these assessments will provide a full picture of the risks and impacts to inform effective engagement with local communities.On health impacts, the Health Protection Agency is currently reviewing the evidence base on the health impacts of shale gas, with a particular focus on the health impacts of emissions to air, land and water. This review will identify any potential health risks, and inform both future regulation and any future health impact assessments that may be carried out.As regards the wider concerns about the implications of large scale shale gas production for the UK’s climate change policies, etc., it is in general too early as yet to make any meaningful estimate of what these might be in the absence of any convincing estimate of what future production might be. But as there has been particular concern about the carbon footprint of shale gas operations, and in particular the possible impacts of fugitive emissions of methane, I should note that all shale gas operations will be subject to my Department’s long-standing policy on flaring and venting of methane. Venting of methane, which has been widely unregulated in the US prior to the recent proposals from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for a new controls, is already required in the UK to be reduced to the minimum technically possible. Flaring of methane will also be required to be reduced to the economic minimum, so that where cost-effective routes for economic use of the gas are available, these must be used. These controls mean that UK oil and gas operations already meet the standards which the EPA is introducing, but the new Office will ensure that these work consistently with new controls which may be introduced by the Environment Agency in applying their legislation, and that methane emissions will continue to be minimised.At the present time, methane emissions from oil and gas operations onshore are a very small part of our GHG emissions. The current estimate is that they contribute less than 1% to the total. And the relatively small number of wells which might be drilled in the current exploration phase will not in any case substantially increase that contribution. I therefore intend to commission a study into the possible impacts of shale gas extraction on greenhouse gas emissions. This will consider the available evidence on the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions from shale gas exploitation, and the need for further research. I have invited Professor David Mackay, my Department’s Chief Scientific Adviser and Dr Tim Stone, the Expert Chair of the Office of Nuclear Development to undertake this work.We are also taking steps to prepare the way for any future production phase, though this is likely to be some years away. We have commissioned more detailed work on the shale gas resources of Great Britain from the British Geological Survey (BGS) and this will be published early next year. I emphasise that this will provide only an estimate of the resource, the gas in the ground, and not the reserves, the amount of gas which can in practice be produced economically from that resource. Until more exploration work has been done, a significant number of wells fracked and production patterns established over time, it will not be possible to make any meaningful estimate of likely economically recoverable resources of shale gas in the United Kingdom.Also, we will be acting on the academies’ recommendations that the regulatory bodies should assess the requirements for effective regulation of a significant future production phase, and that existing coordination should be maintained and strengthened. The new Office of Unconventional Gas and Oil will be taking this forward in collaboration with the other departments and agencies concerned. And the Environment Agency is already conducting a review of the implications of shale gas for its regulatory responsibilities, including the question of whether further controls and monitoring requirements are appropriate in respect of methane emissions. To facilitate future development, further consideration is being given to ensuring a streamlined and transparent regulatory process for environmental permitting.We will also be taking steps to open the way to new onshore licensing. DECC had already commenced a Strategic Environmental Assessment in 2010, with a view to further onshore licensing, and conducted a public consultation in the latter part of that year. Work on the SEA has however been in abeyance following the seismic tremors in 2011. DECC will now commission further work on the environmental implications of further licensing, taking account of all new knowledge arising since the earlier assessment was compiled, and will conduct a full public consultation on the extended assessment. The results of this consultation will be fully considered before any decisions are taken on new licensing.Many more questions of detail have been raised over the last year or so, particularly in the course of our consultation, and in this statement I have sought only to cover the principal issues of interest to the greatest number of respondents. I have today placed in the Libraries of both Houses and placed on my Department’s website a full synopsis of the questions raised and of the Government’s responses to them as well as a response on all of the recommendations of the academies’ study group.
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